Charlie Rose

Ricardo_Amaral  06/18/2012 07:19 AM Report

I just posted some information on the Elite Trader Economics forum about the current economic crisis in Greece, and you can read it at:

June 18, 2012

SouthAmerica: The Greek election results from this weekend has improved the crisis and economic situation in Greece: the only way you can believe that is if you are “Brain Dead.”

Here is why:

Greece Economic Meltdown

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=9943c6749de1ac16c09405d3ba63cdb9&threadid=228135&perpa ge=6&pagenumber=4

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BENEZRAA  06/18/2012 05:00 AM Report

HELLO TO YOU TOO, MR. GELLES!

Like others, I did notice your absence and it is good to see your comments to these pages again. (FYI you may call or email me at any time. I have attempted to reach you in these ways the past few weeks and not succeeded. Changes on your end, I believe.) Though I must say that I never conceived of myself as part of a team, I have always appreciated your added strength and shared sentiments on specific issues, and I have always held you in deep respect for your seniority, professional background, and WW2 service. With respect to economics, I am more likely a "Catastrophist" (if there is such a school of economics); but, I do not begrudge you your passion for Keynes, nor do I have sufficient economics background to hold any intelligent or critical conversation on the subject, except to say that, if there is a science to economics that is truly within our current ken, that science is not clear and obvious to most persons; the arguments are obscure or dogmatic between proponents, politicians, and nations; and the media for the most part seems geared to the successful marketing of medications for headache, gastric distress, and various other ailments largely of psychosomatic nature. The media noise of "wackamole" upon each economic "crisis" large, small, real or imagined is enough to spike the market to reach for "pop, pop, fizz, fizz -- oh, what a relief it is!" (Sodium BiCarbonate and mega-bailouts.) My greater concern, actually, goes to the the consequences internally, should we fail to get things speedily right in the arena of the world order of things. The consequences at home may be failure to clean out the criminal rot, corruption, and growing totalitarianisms of both the left-wing and the right-wing elements of our own national economic, social, political, and military body such that the belly of that body has questionable structural integrity.

My impression of the Marshall Plan was that it combined economic aid with large measures of social and political discipline. If Europe can voluntarily practice appropriate social and political discipline for both the rich and the poor in order to lift up rather than barbecue, then perhaps far less American financial infusion may be required. Lord Knows the USA could well do with some appropriate discipline to it's own rich and poor. My personal sentiments in that regard are quite simple: austerity is a wonderful thing for those, who can afford it, and a terrible thing for those, who have to practice it.

Gelles  06/18/2012 03:17 AM Report

"stamina of Franklin and Winston" -- the "of" was killed by gremlins.

Gelles  06/18/2012 03:12 AM Report

Europe:

On Sunday Fareed Zakaria discussed the European Debt Crisis with Nial Ferguson and Robert Skidelsky, not in terms of a major infusion of credit from a new Marshall Plan by the USA to rehabilitate a war torn Europe, but in terms of "global demand" and "global debt to GDP ratios" that seem to be creating dangerous levels of economic contraction of the kind that invited growth of totalitarian powers in the 1930's. The results of severe economic contraction are unpredictable -- and we are all in fear of them.

Russia:

The Russian game in Syria and absence of diplomatic unity between China, Russia, Europe and America, is cause for fear on a scale of the fear for European disunity over Keynesian economics as mentioned above.

BenEzraa calls our attention to these fears -- and rightly so. He adds Iran to the mix -- because Iran can be the spark that ignites the passions accompanying the disunities over austerity (anti-Keynesian ignorance) and Russian gamesmanship already noted.

Charlie Rose will start us off tomorrow with all the trivia around Romney versus Obama. It will be a good day to remember the 20th Century as we did with a celebration of the life of Winston Churchill last week. Elections in that century were what they are today: INSUFFICIENT for the task of democratic reform.

BenEzraa and I were once a team to oppose confusion in this archive over problem and solution definitions and suggested agendas. The team disintegrated and confusion was never adequately opposed by others.

Now we fear European unemployment and our own. We fear diplomatic disunity at the Summit. And some of us even fear rapid cultural change outside the realms ruled by guns and money.

We have invested a lot in Charlie Rose. Let us pray he can stand up to the coming elections with a cast of brilliant minds and the stamina Franklin and Winston, whose story is told by Jon Meacham, a close friend of CR and all of us.

BENEZRAA  06/15/2012 06:54 PM Report

EUROPE: May we have the wisdom, will, and wherewithal to create a free-will, pre-emptive "Marshall Plan" by which to stem a European decline into a Third World War ("And it's One, Two, Three Strikes -- 'You're out!"-- at the Old Ball Game!")

SYRIA: Syria may be the present equivalent of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Kudos to Obama and Clinton for calling-out Putin. It is the right time and the right circumstances. Assad will be out, there will be regime change, Lebanon will stabilize, the Circle of Power* breached (*Russia, Syria, Iran, China) and then broken upon the inevitable internal removal of megalomaniac Ahmadinijad from Iran's power seat.

ECONOMICS: None of these necessary scenarios will be without cost, so don't expect to "save 15% on your car insurance". Do expect many sleepless nights as these scenarios play out for the ultimate good of the future.

tabs  06/15/2012 03:23 PM Report

How does this European crisis resolve itself without chaos and fragmentation raising its ugly head? European history is fraught with messy ends in which war is outcome of last resort. Or will it be the depotism of the Sturmabteilung both literal and or figurative that mollifies the German fear of a return of the Weimar? So here the world sits being held hostage to the indecision of short sighted men and women who either don't see or have the courage to take the steps necessary to to save themselves. Much the pity because events will pass them by as power abhors a vacume.

Gelles  06/15/2012 06:44 AM Report

Ricardo ~

The USA and Russia (and every civilized nuclear power) are natural allies in the future conquest of scarcity. Read the analyses from Singularity University and especially the Peter Diamandis book "Abundance".

The Russians have no interest in nuclear war -- they already are partners in the USA/Russian monopoly in hyper-force. China (even the EU) may catch up with them. Syria and North Korea are not relevant to their destinies. These warts, and Pakistan and Iran, may sit on the skin of small anomalies in our political skin, but four warts are not a fatal growth of skin cancer.

Your analysis assumes insanity in charge in Moscow. I do not see any evidence of it. American leadership may not have disclosed its plan for peace and prosperity among civilized powers based on growth not suicide: but you may rest assured the future holds small wars against incipient tyranny by local dead-enders. Major wars by Russia and America against real contenders are in your imagination -- not theirs.

Although the 20th Century followed an unlikely scenario of small sparks that destroyed large powers, the advent of WMD's made the future different from the past.

However, if against all odds and logic, today's pipsqueak local tyrants are not swatted down for the flies they are, and they manage to win Russia or China to their side, the price of peace and abundance now so low may climb high as you suggest. I think you must be blind to see what you claim is visible. But a future catastrophe of a more likely natural cause remains our possible end. You and I cannot change that.

You do not appear to favor Syrian or Islamic fascism. But you are attracted to anti-Americanism along with Chomsky and other sick people. You all deserve to visit your friends outside the West -- and stay there until you want to come home to what you for unknown reasons fail to appreciate.

Ricardo_Amaral  06/14/2012 07:58 AM Report

A renowned American political analyst says Israel gets away with numerous violations of international law as the Jewish entity is a client of the US and therefore enjoys "total impunity," Press TV reports.

Noam Chomsky: US and Israel violate international law with total impunity – June 14, 2012

http://youtu.be/DtzFY4lgV94

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Ricardo_Amaral  06/14/2012 07:23 AM Report

Gelles, here is some names for you: Hillary Clinton, Susan Rice, and so on....

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Ricardo_Amaral  06/14/2012 07:20 AM Report

Gelles, don't underestimate the amount of stupid people that we have in Washington DC (and also at the UN) we have enough “stupid warmongers” in Washington and at the UN to get a nuclear war going between the United States and Russia.

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Ricardo_Amaral  06/14/2012 07:08 AM Report

Gelles, the reality is that we don't have any good choices left to choose from. The only choices that are left today; you can choose if you want to die by being run over: 1) by a car or 2) by a truck.

Never mind the financial mess or the first great depression of the 21st century.

The US is trying to do something new this time around and more exciting for the US population:

The US is going to push for a nuclear war with Russia – and that one will be hot like hell.

Russia will confront any US-led attack on Syria: Webster Tarpley – June 13, 2012

http://youtu.be/anCW_KO_gqA

*****

The US military knows that a military intervention in Syria and Iran means "Nuclear War" between the USA and Russia.

'US military reins in White House warmongers' – June 13, 2012

http://youtu.be/mfJauMGqpp4

A recent Pentagon draft report entitled a "Decade of War" has highlighted how "strategic leadership repeatedly failed" in a decade of US-led wars. Lawrence Freeman from the Executive Intelligence Weekly told RT it is now the military keeping a bellicose White House in check.

*****

Here is what the US and the American people will get from the Russians in case of a nuclear war:

http://youtu.be/Bz9g_rl2JnU

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It will be very hot around here in the New York Metropolitan area when these Russian nuclear warheads start landing around here.

http://youtu.be/eCaKiVsQd9w

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Gelles  06/14/2012 01:08 AM Report

Ricardo and REMant are united in their confidence the dollar will soon by Romney's to use for maximum favorable global effect.

These two come fro opposites sides of the ideological spectrum: REM is for austerity to the max. Ricardo is not.

Patience is advised. November 6th is just around the corner. You may prefer to see savings maxed out before government spending of debt-free money begins in earnest. I prefer the two move up in tandem, each promoting growth in the other.

Up the euro and the dollar. Up the Western political economy as we used to think of its power to raise supply and demand together and be unafraid of success.

Obviously, the future has not yet happened. The past is widely misunderstood. All we have to go on is wishes and wants that cannot come true for everyone and may not be fair to anyone. That's all we have today. The Singularity comes closer by the hour. I'm for believing in it and the abundance that it promises. To hell with all contrary opinion. It sees failure in all directions -- and it's rudder is busted besides. See you on Charlie Rose archive with your same old pitch in favor of garbage and mine in favor of sunshine keeping the blues away.

Gelles  06/13/2012 09:29 PM Report

Well Ricardo, you and I remain consistent -- but on opposite sides of the pro-America divide.

Time will have to tell us which predictions are closer to true than others.

Ricardo_Amaral  06/13/2012 07:38 PM Report

@REMant: The United States needs to start ASAP as many wars as possible to take the attention away from its collapsing economic and financial system based on the US dollar.

The Ponzi scheme built over the years based on the US dollar is collapsing faster than most people realized:

Reality Check: China and USA

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=29ff4505f38e48ac4685e0efdaa0f6c0&threadid=244281

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The World Economic and Financial Collapse is already underway...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=29ff4505f38e48ac4685e0efdaa0f6c0&threadid=222491&perpa ge=6&pagenumber=21

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Ricardo_Amaral  06/13/2012 07:11 PM Report

Welcome back Gelles. I hope everything is well with you.

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fana01  06/13/2012 07:02 PM Report

The writer William Faulkner said that the past is not dead. The past is not even in the past. So true now in Europe. Europe could solve this debt problem if it were not for WWI and WWII. They all fear German domination.

defeat_spin  06/13/2012 06:50 PM Report

It was mentioned that 30 percent of the public was backing the far right and left. Although it is discussing the American Constitutional System; I thought that Mann and Ornstein's book, 'It's Even Worse than It Looks', had some take home points in chapter 7 that would be good in the current European crisis as well. The points under 'The Voters Decide' I thought were point on. It is too easy to kick the bums out and it often results in a much worse situation. Public needs to take steps away from people who go for the low-hanging fruit named extremism.

Gelles  06/13/2012 04:45 PM Report

"unless he can prevent its occurrence with American credit advice"

to correct the phrase as mis-typed

Gelles  06/13/2012 04:42 PM Report

The potential for right versus left extremism within the European Union threatens to repeat the 1930's in 2012. No one wants that. Least of all Obama -- unless he can prevent its occurrence with its credit and advice or with just enough war to prevent further spread of nuclear weapons among rogue nations, like Iran.

So we have a situation where a potentially wildly successful presidency, rivaling FDR's in importance, may be prevented by a debt crisis in Europe unless we back their money or their determination to prevent nuclear WMD's from being stock-piled by their most dangerous enemy.

Some think Romney is an answer. I trust more in the Obama good luck than in Romney's claimed skills.

The European debt/credit crisis was joined by a tribute to Sargent Schriver and review of self-help tools for defeating psychological blockages. It was a perfect combination of appeal to policy for a democratic political economy, respect for a sterling character, and information on tools of the self-help trade.

I can think of no better hour of TV in recent years.

You may not want the anti-austerity solutions offered by protection of the west from a potential return of totalitarian forces in strength. But the forces are being arrayed in reaction to intolerable austerity. Trust in Obama's luck is about all we have at the moment. In a moth or more, I hope the signs improve for a lot more opportunity than will follow any return to capitalist fundamentalism and away from global economic action in pursuit of long term peace and prosperity.

SharkswithfrikingLazers  06/13/2012 04:26 PM Report

We are told, 'PROFOUND TRAGEDY—doesn’t have to be this way. Greece is like Florida and a giant vacation zone. Comes down to the political problem time and time again.'

So how about a team building exercise or will it be a civil war to unify the Eurozone?

I vote for team building and giving Germans a voucher to Greece to help with Greece's debt payment. (Good idea Gillian.)

Otherwise the hate will fester into Gillian's "animal spirit" of war.

Charlie, we can always send over "The Tools" and "Grateful Flow".

SharkswithfrikingLazers  06/13/2012 04:12 PM Report

FEAR! GREAT FEAR!

FEAR of what happens if it falls apart. No positive vision driving it forward.

So this is June. I predict you will be back in a few months to say the same thing. Shall we make it August?

SharkswithfrikingLazers  06/13/2012 04:08 PM Report

'Committee to save the world:

Bob Rubin, Alan Greenspan, Larry Summers people like that. It is not clear that America or anyone else can solve the problem.'

Yes, get the creators of the problem to solve it.

Gillian, my love, you appeared in "Inside Job" you might need to watch it again.

Franck  06/13/2012 03:56 PM Report

No wonder you have to leave it there: If this is a political crisis, then why do you ask economics journalists? Also, the American position is disingenuous. First, there is no free money, especially for prudence, and for savers facing inflation. Second, oh my, the German money has strings attached. The American doesn’t? Just take a look what USAid is doing in the name of “economic, development and humanitarian assistance around the world in support of the foreign policy goals of the United States.”

REMant  06/13/2012 11:59 AM Report

WOW! A whole 'nother hour of liberal shibboleths! I suppose, then, unlike all this negativism and avoidance, invading Syria IS a "positive vision," and "reaching for greatness." As if they didn't have enough "animal spirits" there already. Austerity is, of course, holding us back, but destruction will fulfill our destiny. Makes a lot of sense. If you are looking for the cause of conflict in this world, look no further than the kind of obtuseness shown last night. No one, as I pointed out when Gordon Brown was here preaching like this, used the word will more than Adolf Hitler. He certainly aimed to be "great," too.

I just love the way the liberal press takes all this for granted. "Economists believe..." and so forth. But I have no doubt the NY Times at least will be better off with a Pres Romney, as will its main constituencies. Tho they may have to to change into some pinpoints and wrinkle-free pants.

Through most of our history the govt's mere statement that it backed our paper money was insufficient to accomplish anything. It only did when it meant going off the gold standard, which cost the public a huge chunk of its savings. That has not changed. And for the nth time, the world war did not "boost growth." It boosted inflation, which officialdom was so worried about, ppl were urged to save, and reinvest in the war. And while it certainly put ppl to work, the war cost far more than it returned. There's never been any indication that many govt ventures short of war do any better, and the present is a case in point. IMHO Krugman ought to be stopped, now.

There is, tho, a proposal, originating among some German economists, and reported in the FT last fall, which would pool all the debt above 60 percent of each Eurozone country's gross domestic product into a "redemption," or sinking, fund. Altho it involves the issuance of bonds, unlike the Eurobond idea, each country would pay off its portion over 20 to 25 years, tho at rates lower than what struggling countries are paying now, and require balanced budgets as a condition. This would take care of the immediate fiscal problem, though it doesn't deal with the ECB.