Paul Krugman

with Paul Krugman
in Books
on Monday, April 30, 2012 * * * * *

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Paul Krugman, New York Times columnist and professor of economics at Princeton University on his book “End This Depression Now!"

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Commission
deficit
finance
budget
economy
Obama

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    1. charliesheep  01/15/2013 12:46 PM Report

      THE TELL ;PBS MOYERS SHOW 2013 - ;LAID PATH TO NOWHERE, AS PAUL SET OUT THE FOOTPRINT,-- FOR ALL NAKED SWIMMERS WITH TIDE OUT---WHAT COMES HOME IS; STILL,-- THE REPUBLICANS SAY--WELL, WE STILL WANT THE MAI TAIS WE ORDERED! I.E AND WHILE YOUR AT IT; COOK THE DEAD FISH AT ONCE- TAKE THE PO-FOLKS BONES---AND -- MAKE "SOUP ON THE BEACH"

    2. Muldfeld  05/22/2012 04:45 AM Report

      Can someone answer why Paul Krugman's fascinating interview was cut short -- without him being able to even say good-bye -- just to show old interview footage of Tom Coburn, whom Charlie was going to interview the next day anyway? Was this some strange last minute order from higher-ups at PBS who insist on appeasing rightists? It doesn't seem fair to cut Krugman short, but give Coburn not only part of Krugman's hour, but the entirety of the hour the next day. I'd really like an explanation!

    3. winter  05/13/2012 12:31 PM Report

      Charlies not half as bad as Chris Matthews on his show Hardball and that whole crew nightly at MSNBC. They jettison guests telling them, "we're outta time" when all they do is

      jump to the next often less interesting and important thing, often w/o even giving the guest the chance to say bye or thanks just ...they disappear. I was a devoted watcher of the hosts all night but their lack of decorum was just too much. Now Elliot Spitzer over at Current I find is a much less sound byte needing host and will get into real depth.

      I don't know how Krugman could have been passed over as Sec. of Treasury for the parade of Wall St. and Fed types. I just hope the Bush tax cut expirations are still standing after the upcoming winds that surely will be assaulting them with extortion schemes till November. I read a some gang of CEO's banded for a full on attack to keep them from expiring.

    4. Do-Not-Interrupt-Me  05/09/2012 04:04 AM Report

      I just could not finish watching this episode, and boy did I really want to hear all of what Paul Krugman had to say! And I really, really tried!

      I had a hunch it was to be this way shortly after the program started.. The signs were there from the beginning.

      Charlie, Charlie, Charlie...haven't we told you that you are unbearable when you come into the studio after drinking a pot of coffee, having popped all those dexies, and and drinking all those cans of Red Bull. You know that is hard on your system, but don't you, yet, realize that it is worse on your audience.

      So, about half way through, I had to hit the change-channel button. Damn!....just once let your guest finish a sentence. Just once! Just once, let your guest pause for a nanosecond withouut interrupting his chain of thought. Try it, please! The constant, hyper, out-and-out manic need, the insistence, that you have to step on everything your guest is saying becomes,very quickly, intolerable.

      Charlie, Charlie.....Mr. Krugman is who I wanted to hear, not you---don't you see the expressions on your guests' faces a they get cut off and wait for you to "finish" your interruptions. You seem to do it just to hear yourself ask the question, even though the interruption adds nothing....I know, you just can't help it.

      I couldn't take any more. I had to cut you off; I had to interrupt you, Charlie. Damn...I really wanted to hear what Krugman had to say.

    5. Gelles  05/05/2012 11:16 PM Report

      TP,

      You never once mentioned production or output of necessities, like water, food, housing, power, medicine, care, learning, skills, materials, weapons, infrastructure, R&D in support of know-how for the modern revolutionary products from IT, biotech, nano-tech, etc.

      You talk of debt as though it had teeth. It has none. It is no more than stock shares when the debtor's wealth is zero.

      You talk of confidence. Germans and Japanese had confidence. They lacked the overwhelming quantity of weapons up against them, inc;uding at the end nuclear bombs.

      Life consists of needs, satisfaction of needs, and habits. We are in the habit of ignoring the Keynesian argument that we use a moonetary system of production; and that if it produces, it requires money to buy its production. If we fail to invent the money as fast as our machines produce our needs, the system has a deficit in demand that is as bad, almost, as a deficit in supply.

      A deficit in revenue is nonsense: money created by the federal reserve is as good as money created by individual borrowers IF production is on the shelves and the seller needs the sales.

      We once had debtors prisons and people thought we needed them. Now we know debt is nothing until it's paid. Prison will not pay it. Only money backed by sufficient quality output of necessities makes promises to pay for things we own worth a fig.

      It may be necessary today to copy war-time finance to prevent the kind of war we had in the 1940's from being repeated tomorrow and the day after.

      In WWII markets were used. They were not using us. Today's markets for labor are using us to satisfy the ignoramnce of nutty pople.

      Why in a democracy would taxes be required when government can facilitate production with money and people can save the money now asked for tax payments? This can only be the result of craziness at the top. If we ended taxes and similar institutions, people would again love government and not put their faith in bosses whos salaries and stolen money puts them with the less than 1 percent who enslave the bottom third of the nation,

      Krugman sees all this. Obama sees nearly none.

      We may not be headed for civil war. We may use more wars with foreigners to end our market nuttiness and go back to a WWII system of rational production.

      China is run more by engineers and princelings than lawyers and thieves, like we are. While we talk market gibberish, they are tooling up to produce solar cells, windmills, engineers and a blue water navy. If we prevail, it will be because our own military wakes up and makes the lawyers and accountants repeat our systems in force from 1941 to 1946. That was when I was in the Navy and not brain washed by Republicans.

      Krugman is too young to remember when we borrowed nothing from China or the crooks around today. We borrowed with savings bonds from ourselves -- but evn that was just for show. What we did was to train labor to produce and other men to fight. Then we did both and rest is history.

      Today it is avoidance of war that is our purpose and objective. We have to train labor to produce and more labor to perform the diplomatic missions that win allies to our cause destroy plans for terror in their cradles before they can move a finger.

      The money pictured in the mind of market fundamentalists does not exist. It would be money able to design its own use as though it had a brain.

      The only successful money we have is the money we used in WW II. It obeys the orders of men and women who know what works and what is just hot air.

    6. Taxpayer  05/05/2012 08:39 PM Report

      For markets to function effectively, participants must have confidence in the integrity and fairness of transactions, and in the medium of exchange. For governments of free-market democracies to function effectively,citizens and markets must have confidence in the money and other forms of security created by those governments. If a government fails to pay its debts, it loses the confidence of the citizens and market players. Similarly, if a government creates more cash or securities than the market sees as a justifiable increase in the money supply to match an increase in the size of the economy, confidence in the currency and government securities will fall, leading to a fall in the exchange rate of its currency, price inflation, and to the government having to pay higher interest rates on its bonds. We have seen (and continue to see) the effects when the bond market sees an increase in risk from excessive debt-to-GDP ratios (Greece, Spain, Italy, etc.). Interest rates rise, the portion of the government budget that goes to interest payments increases, and so on it spirals until the government is bankrupt and needs a bailout (and/or the bondholders take a haircut - see Greece).

      I doubt that any popular economic theory has an attractive solution to the current malaise of excessive debt, budget deficits, and economic recession. No theory or model can explain away huge and increasing debts or prevent dire effects from a failure of a government to maintain the confidence of citizens and markets in the currency and government bonds. The only real solution may be to retrench - to cut back on foreign expenditures (to Iraq and Afghanistan, Pakistan, etc.) and to reduce domestic outlays to match income. Tom Coburn's proposals for reductions in outlays may be the best route. Painful as budget cutbacks may be, they may be a better long-term solution than running up more debt to merely postpone the inevitable reckoning.

      At the same time, the lessons reflected in Glass - Steagle and what we should learn fom the repeal of G-L, government programs promoting home ownership and excessive risk-taking, and the loosening of market rules by the Clinton and G.W. Bush administrations, show that G-L should be reinstated in full vigor. Dodd-Frank does not do the job fully - and Wall Street is lobbying like mad to water D-F down. Congress has been selling itself to the highest bidder, and the taxpayers are being saddled with more and more debt while the Wall Street players continue to enjoy government bailouts and engage in excessive risk-taking that "too big to fail" may require more bailouts by American taxpayers. Wall Street continues to act like rats and termites who are plundering the cargo and eating the planks of a ship that they risk sinking. Any remedy that fails to reform the Wall Street structure may be futile.

    7. Gelles  05/05/2012 04:37 PM Report

      Because all this is impossible to understand without a working model, we need to establish small nations based on big theories to uderstand what we're talking abojut and observe if it's true. The market knows what it won't tell model is failing around the world. The Keynesian model works for war. We should not resort to that. Use Keynes to PREVENT WAR. I'll buy that.

    8. Gelles  05/05/2012 04:32 PM Report

      Sorry to have written so much to say so little. Trying to communicate Keynes (employment, interest and money) and Lerner (functional finance -- purpose and production determine money's power), from one mind to another is nearly impossible.

    9. Gelles  05/05/2012 04:23 PM Report

      TP tells us that we ask to be entitled to things beyond our bank accounts. But we know that our bank accounts are not geared to our potential to produce our needs. That is th problem to be solved.

      If we raise production, we can raise entitlements. It is just that simple. But we have to understand this fact and execute the changes in the law to make it work.

    10. Gelles  05/05/2012 04:15 PM Report

      Krugman and JG want us to produce enough to eat and to export enough in exchange for things we do not have.

    11. Gelles  05/05/2012 04:12 PM Report

      All of the above means our fear of debt and taxes makes no sense. Debt and taxes are not mopney. Only law and possession of the things that money can buy determine what money is and who has it.

      Americans today cannot be short of money. They can only be short of the things that money must buy. Debt is only paper, and when it exceeds what debtors are worth it is worthless too.

      If Krugman wants us to produce the things we need, there is automatically money to buy them IF the law says so AND we do in fact print or otherwise create the money.

      All of this is obviously true -- yet we know that some nations have suffered from hyper-inflation, and they had to abandon an old money for its successor.

      Thi does not mean their people have to eat Reichmarks. They still eat food as they print Deutchemarks.

    12. Gelles  05/05/2012 04:00 PM Report

      The Preamble does not mention or define MONEY. It assumes the common law definition of MONEY as a monopoly of sovereign states with the military power to enforce contracts and payment of all debt, as determined by the law of the land.

      3DC, TP and JG appear to accept the fact that none but the sovereign military force can turn an IOU into a dollar bill.

      However, how much a dollar will buy is impractical for courts of law and soldiers or police to determine at every market stall.

      So governments alone print money. Buyers and sellers alone, as individuals, determined market prices for most transactions.

      Some transactions, however, are huge. And courts have the time and force to determine price in many cases. We call that law. and It is even possible by law to control all lesser prices too. When such price control can be enforced, as in any emergency, markets are closed down and people must obey laws intended to save a nation from death and disaster.

      Abraham Lincoln used such laws to print money free of debt. It worked so well, the whole world prints it now. It is called fiat money -- but that same world prints money the old fashioned way as well.

      Instead of soverein IOU's, they print bank-note IOU's to turn real wealth into money in very large amounts compared to sovereign fiat money.

      Although bank-notes start with real loans based on collateral and creit worth promises, such notes are not distinguishable from fiat money when in printed form or as reported by licensed banks as being on deposit.

      In the real world, both kinds of money end up being worth no more than sellers say they are. Buyers may hold Confederate dollars. But sellers own what money must buy. Only the force of arms can make sellers take money they don't trust.

    13. Gelles  05/05/2012 03:37 PM Report

      3DC (doodahdollychawly), TP (Taxpater), and John Gelles (JG), appear to be reasonable Americans. Please let us compare their points.

      We can assume they all agree on the near perfection of our Preamble:

      ..... ..... "We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."

    14. doodahdollychawly  05/05/2012 02:47 PM Report

      The Hell with 'Occupy Wall Street'.

      Wake me up when they Finally decide to 'Burn Wall Street'!

      Now that's what I'm talking about

    15. doodahdollychawly  05/05/2012 02:42 PM Report

      ...and that's how Wars get started. Which is a reset.

    16. doodahdollychawly  05/05/2012 02:39 PM Report

      The problem is,' What Is Money?' or what definition of it is being used at the time.?. People use the same word in argument but are arguing over different things assuming the other is not.

      For some, 'money' is just a medium of exchange for goods and services; if one has had an easy life with an easy job that they like, I can see how that would fit the bill. But if one has struggled and suffered through life, breaking their ass to get it right with heavy responsibility, money to them is more like what have already suffered for (savings, wealth, etc.). Which it couldn't be just that, either, or we would still be living in caves.

      Somewhere in between the two extremes is the reality (and a very thin line it must be).

      I think it's probably gone too far in the wrong direction to truly fix it now, so we may as well go all in and let the chips fall where they may.

      ---

      Hey! Didn't THEY already do that?!

    17. Taxpayer  05/05/2012 06:55 AM Report

      Having heard of Paul Krugman's proposal for massive stimulus to create economic "growth" and thus cure America's economic ills, I wonder whether this is another example of an academic strategy that mistakes the dominant academic model of reality for reality itself. Such adademic strategies get lost within the artificial universe of models and arcane argot, and thus lose sight of the reality off-campus. Throwing more money (obtained by more borrowing or by simply creating it by fiat) at debt and deficit only appears to pay the debt and deficit - and prolongs the economic model in which nations can continue to spend money they do not have and thus maintain artifical prosperity. Sooner or later, the incurred debt must be paid and the created currency must be taken into accout (either through inflation or a recognition that excessive creation of currency debases the currency). In my opinion, strategies such as "quantitative easing", "stimulus", and deficit budgets may return an economy to pre-2008 "normality", but, at best, can only delay an inevitable reckoning with the reality that no government can forever spend more than it can collect in taxes. The idea that future economic growth can be called upon to cover huge unfunded programs appears to be a popular fantasy - a form of Ponzi scheme in which imaginary future tax receipts will be a forever-expanding source of government revenue sufficient to cover all present and future government outlays, and in which all entitlement programs can be maintained forever. Europe has now run up against the reality of unsustainable debt and deficit, and the Euro currency union is very much at risk. The European Central Bank is reluctant to create large amounts of new Euros to paper over the exisiting debts and deficits. Individual members of the European union may have to leave the monetary union, retreating to their own currencies which they can print and devalue, and thus return to economic competitiveness and reasonable unemployment levels. Any strategy that involves reductions of entitlements is very unpopular with voters accustomed to promises of more goodies in every election campaign, so any politician who attempts to inject budgetary reality into political campaigning is risking defeat.

    18. Gelles  05/04/2012 12:09 PM Report

      http://www.amazon.com/End-This-Depression-Paul-Krugman/forum/FxAXKCJL2UFVMO/-/1/ref=cm_cd_dp_ef_sap?_ encoding=UTF8&cdAnchor=0393088774

      Please visit this link for discussion of K's book END THIS DEPRESSION NOW

    19. Gelles  05/04/2012 08:42 AM Report

      Krugman's book offers scholarly argument with which I agree. My own prescription for inflation-protected bank accounts, the liberal use of debt-free money from the Fed to excape the liquidity trap, and ending all income and capital taxes, may not be agreeable to him: I do not converse with him as Charlie Rose does many times.

      The following review from Amazon appeals to me. It is copied here at the teachable moment and not for commercial gain by anyone but the people of planet earth -- it is so copied in accordance with law.

      Editorial Reviews

      Review

      “An important contribution to the current study of economics and a reason for hope that effective solutions will be implemented again.” (Kirkus Reviews )

      “Starred review. Krugman (Fuzzy Math), winner of the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics, takes an edifying and often humorous journalistic approach to the current economic crisis in this accessible and timely study. Rather than provide a mere postmortem on the 2008 collapse (though relevant history lessons are provided), Krugman aims to plot a path out of this depression.

      Krugman has consistently called for more liberal economic policies, but his wit and bipartisanship ensure that this book will appeal to a broad swath of readers—from the Left to the Right, from the 99% to the 1%.” (Publishers Weekly )

      .

      About the Author

      Paul Krugman is the recipient of the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics. He is a best-selling author, columnist, and blogger for the New York Times, and is a professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University.

    20. Gelles  05/04/2012 08:25 AM Report

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preamble_to_the_United_States_Constitution

      The actual link to the document you need to memorize is above.

    21. Gelles  05/04/2012 08:22 AM Report

      "We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."

      My link failed. The Preamble is copied for you above. You may also Google for it. Try "The Preamble Wikipedia"

    22. Gelles  05/04/2012 08:13 AM Report

      Dear RTB (ready to buy):

      I certainly agree with YOU, Ricadro's posts are far too long and frequent.

      Your own a far to scarce and sccretive: what is your desire for our nation to do? Impose austerity? SPEND debt free money from the Federal Reserve when it buys US Treasury paper? (Such spending is tax free and debt free. But it risks inflation.)

      If you favor austerity BECAUSE you are convinced "markets", especially the labor market, is self-correcting, please say so and please predict the outcome for the agenda you prefer.

      I could shut-up now. Or I can add a few thoughts. My obvious thought is that your agenda favors austerity and that the Fed stop fighting the liquidity deficit and the Treasury stop spending debt-free, tax-free money to allow federal investment in our fifty states, energy independence, R&D, education, health, defense, and recovery, etc.

      If that is your advice and agenda, you know mine is the opposite. Mine is the WWII approach to government spending: spend enough to win our wars and make peace time a period of full employment and economic democracy for YOU and ME.

      RTB, are you ready to buy what you need and give our Preamble a chance to come true? The Preamble promises us all an economic democracy where our children enjoy freedom and prosperity based on technological accomplishment and progress in education, training and business.

      If most of our children need a better education and a better job, something must be wrong. Wrong with US and THEM or WRONG WITH THE SYSTEM IN PLACE!

      Please do not hold back. The Charlie Rose Show asks questions. It rarely offers any answers. Ricardo, IMO, offers poison much of the time. I offer Keynesian doctrine without the debt that was common to money at the time of his original writing. Debt-free supplementary money is more common today. My advice is to use just enough DFM (debt free money) to reach full employment of labor and capital to allow our PREAMBLE to ring true to our ears.

      You can Google for the text of the PREAMBLE or, if memory serves, it is copied to my website:

      http://www.ustaxreform.us/preamble.htm

      If the link fails, I'll have to correct it in a moment or two.

    23. rtb  05/04/2012 07:13 AM Report

      Ricardo...Gelles. Your comments are longer than the show. Can't you share email addresses and spare us the space?

      If only all the world's governments would listen to you two....

    24. NeilMacCallister  05/04/2012 04:15 AM Report

      Paul Krugman is such an idiot!!!!!

      ***

      Charlie Rose: "So Paul, who are the informed people in America?"

      Paul Krugman: "Well, Charlie, those would be the people who read my newspaper column!"

      ***

      This man's sole purpose in life is to see the will of America's 350 million economic judgment voters (..the free marketplace!!) bend to the "uber-will" of one Mr. Paul Krugman, and his check-kiting cohort Barack Obama!!

      "The way 'Forward' is to print more money!!"

      "Balanced-Budget 'Austerity' will never work!"

      "Barack Obama has a 'Recovery' underway, somewhere!"

      Has this man 'Paul Krugman' ever had to actually sell any of this crackpot nonsense on the open market? ..or has he been protected all his life by 'friends' who subsidize his personal fantasies with generous government granted monetary stipends? ..kind of like those 'old world-ers' who believed actually having to 'work' was a sign of some societal deficiency?

      Where is Eliza Doolittle to slap this little frock-boy, and tell him to go out and do some work which actually benefits someone other than himself?? ..himself and his dear friend, Barack Obama??

    25. Ricardo_Amaral  05/04/2012 02:54 AM Report

      Latest News about Facebook IPO

      http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=235856&perpage=6&pagenumber=5

      .

      .

    26. Gelles  05/04/2012 01:06 AM Report

      No one suggests that the authority to print new money, which Congress confers of the Fed, allows more money to be printed than the public will save for themselves or accept from shoppers that buy their offerings.

      But neither do believe that less money than meets the savings and shopping tests is enough to reach full employment.

      Full employement is the goal. Deficit ratios are not. When all work and production follows, goals are met and our main fear is losing democracy from enemy action or from neglect of humnan rights by our own government.

      We have lost the rights enumerated in FDR's Second Bill of Rights. Freedom from Want and Fear is already nearly substantially impaired compared with the past.

      What can be done? Krugman says mimic WW II and recover our power to produce what we need with will, skill and work. Without work there is no solution that does not court national failure to implement promised agendas that follow our Constitution's Preamble.

    27. Gelles  05/03/2012 08:44 PM Report

      If you imagine the system of production in material terms, excluding all pricing for the moment, you have the science of logistics. It uses arithmetic and probabilities to plan, and it works with purpose and objectives to give direction to operations.

      After this thought experiment is begun, you try to add money to its bare bones.

      The things that money can buy establish your plan. The money layer is added later depending on which nation plays host and what the law and practical limitations dictate.

    28. tabs  05/03/2012 02:48 PM Report

      Now Comes Part 2:

      Mr Krugman is not the first to lament that programs of austerity are seemingly not working and are in fact driving various economies into a downward spiral. However here is the truth of the matter.

      1. Spain to rectify its deficit and debt situation has instituted a policy of austerity which has driven its economy further into recession. So the the Krugman's are pointing the finger and saying, "I told you it wouldn't work, what we need is even bigger servings of Chicken Sooup."

      2. Conversely if more Chicken Soup is applied the Bond Vigilantes will shun that nations bonds (debt), which drives their interest rates up to unsustainable levels which brings that nations government down and the banks that are holding those bonds into a crisis of liquidity.

      So the long and short of it is that one is damned if one does and damned if one doesn't. It is quite a predicament when neither of the proscribed solutions works and leads to the same place and that is collapse.

      The question is, is there an alternative that will work? The great idea so far is to print money, which in affect devalues debt, which penalizes the bond holders. One should read that as banks, pension funds and other assorted institutional investors for the most part. In the case of Europe it means the Germans are going to be given a "haircut." In Greek fable terms the Ants (Germans) are going to have to pay for the Grasshoppers(PIGS) excessively extravagance of living beyond their means. The Ants have two options, tell the PIGS you are on your own and watch them sink, or they can shoulder the burden and impose the Sturmabteilung on their wayward European cousins as the price that they have to pay. Which leads us back to the problem with austerity. The problem with printing money in the US is that it devalues the USD which will eventually lead to the onset of inflation, which will hit the American peoples pocket book and cause a decrease in the standard of living as those Americans will jut not be able to afford to maintain anymore (here we have not even considered the affect of devalued USD caused inflation on the Global economy (Price of oil) as the USD is the reserve currency).

      Further we throw into the pot the Krugman's desire to raise taxes to help offset further servings of Chicken Soup. However this only puts a ball and chain on an economy as that economy has even less capital to be invested to create Growth. The whole Krugman idea is to serve Chicken Soup in order to stimulate the economy which will lead to enough growth to create a healthy and wealthy economy. With heavy debt levels Krugmans idea fails to appreciate that there are no more chikens to throw into the pot. They have already been eaten Mr Krugman.

      In the end all roads leads to the inevitability of the piper having to be paid. In the US there has been over 40 years of living beyond its means and that has to be rectified (but not before every means of avoiding that rectification by kicking the can down the road has been tried.It is only when all means have been exhausted that there will be the final acceptance). Equilibrium at some point will have to be restored and people are just not going to like it.

    29. Ricardo_Amaral  05/03/2012 11:12 AM Report

      Gelles, you wrote: “Amaral, you disappoint me. You are not a fool. You know Keynes had it all right. Capitalist fundamentalists have the market all wrong: market prices come second to cost accounting as the way to plan production when you cannot afford to lose.”

      Gelles, why are you bringing up the name of John Maynard Keynes and his theories to this conversation?

      We live today in an artificial world here in the US, with massive US government intervention, what is left of the US economy and financial system is in life support, and depend on borrowing money from people from other countries.

      Wall Street is nothing more than a gambling casino, and when they lose their bets they expect the US taxpayer to bail them out and also supply more casino chips for them to continue gambling until the next meltdown.

      John Maynard Keynes economic theories is about a country's economy, about main street, and not about Wall Street gambling in the trillions of US dollars, and Ben Bernanke and a Fed that are completely out of control distorting not only everything in sight in the United States, but also exporting this unsound financial management fiasco to many emerging markets around the world, and affecting in a very negative way the economy of all these countries.

      Gelles, you also said: “Brazil where they turn sugar into fuel and ocean bottom's into oil. It's time for them to stop putting CO2 into our air. Save the forests. Teach themselves English, Portuguese ain't going anywhere.”

      Please check this web site to see where Brazil rank regarding the most environment friendly countries in the world – after you do that check the United States ranking.

      World Top 100 Most Environmental Friendly Countries

      http://www.facebook.com/notes/rcomm-the-recycle-community/world-top-100-most-environmental-friendly-c ountries/10150266975164285?ref=nf

      By the way, today most executives of large corporations in Brazil are fluent in English, and the new generation are becoming fluent in Mandarin since they are looking to the future.

      In Europe most well educated people speak at least 2 or 3 languages, the same in Brazil the well educated speak at least French and English.

      Most Americans speak only one language, and some are forced to learn Spanish, because the Mexicans are taking back pieces of the United States one Mexican at the time.

      .

    30. REMant  05/03/2012 10:52 AM Report

      I always wondered how Ireland and Spain, Italy and Greece could have turned decades of decline around so easily. And I agree it's a depression. But I part company with Prof Krugman, of course, after that. He's been making the same argument for nearly four years. And he's been joined by many of those countries, as well as Britain, which is facing increased difficulties. Mario Monti complained about "austerity" last week.

      The question is responsible welfare vs more money printing. I think those who favor the former, however grudgingly, the Germans and Swedes, are right. However, Prof Krugman would like a political solution, as he urged regarding the banks, which would increase the temptation to print money, and I'm sure that's the underlying reason for it. The Chinese and Koreans have gotten away with it - so far - because they could. They are in better shape, because they are offering desirable goods and services to start with, and trading with parts of the world either uninvolved in this mess, or which provide raw materials for internal growth. We certainly do not want to return to an economy driven by real estate inflation, supported by Saudi handouts and Chinese loans, and I'm convinced we won't. But it is entirely indicative of his attitude, if not also an old-fashioned "bullionist" conception of what wealth is.

      The '30s, indeed, were so far worse, but only because of the inflationary policies pursued. The 1932 London Times exchange between the Keynesisans, who argued for spending, and the classicals, who argued for saving, is exactly relevant today (read clippings, http://thinkmarkets.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/keynes-hayek-1932-cambridgelse.pdf). World War II did mark the end of the Depression here, because the war was an economic boon for us, a lot of the world was destroyed by it, the US took over control of a lot of resources formerly under British control, US plant and equipment as well as workforce were increased, we had experienced twenty years of deprivation, while ppl were forced to save, and Truman balanced the budget. Even so the good times lasted only a few years, and European reconstruction didn't really begin until after a considerable amount of deflation and monetary repatriation.

      Our debt is actually much larger than usually portrayed, because it should include what is owed to retirees, or obligations undertaken to insure financial institutions, and to fund Obamacare, and it doesn't. And I don't think anyone outside of the Fed knows precisely the size of its debt, which would be added to, because few others have the money to buy the bonds required by Prof Krugman's plan, or, given our attitude towards them, the desire. The Fed bought 60% of US issues last year, 80% in 2009, and now owns more US debt than China. And it appears the central banks have been engaged in an elaborate shell game to make it appear their balance sheets are hunky-dory, while allowing the Fed to do it. As it is we already pay more on interest than on the depts of Commerce, Education, Energy, Homeland Security, HUD, Interior, Justice, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and the EPA combined.

      And, once again, the monetarist or Keynesian narrative of the '30s and 1937 is just plain wrong. The 1937 crash, which was actually worse than 1929, was caused by all the money printing accomplished in leaving the gold standard. It was, like 1929, a classic crash, itself instigated by the money sent and spent here by the Europeans during WWI. If the Fed tried to print more money it would not cause inflation anyway, just increase stagnation, because we do need structural reform, not just a new battery, and this is just delaying it. I might mention, too, that ideas such as Krugman's are invariably mercantilist, and viewed as belligerence by other nations, as we, ourselves, saw Mr Keynes'.

      The wealthier, productive or self-sufficient a ppl are the less saving and investment is required and hence the less, not more, money is found, for instance, among the Indians. But the Indians were not poor, just "undeveloped." Nations, tho, have often tried to increase productive activity by printing money resulting in the well-known phenomenon Hume described: a temporary increase in economic activity, followed by higher price levels, because money is worthless if it is not earned by anyone. It just increases indebtedness, and is no more productive than warfare. Scarcity increases, well documented in the 19th c, and more and more money is demanded (which is why real estate is ten or more times it was in the '50s), leading to increasing inflation and a crash. Without productivity increase, it is at best a pyramid scheme, which can only be sustained by new entrants: youth, the unborn or unassimilated. This is what monetarism and the monetary side of Keynesianism prescribe. The fiscal side of Keynesianism merely urges the govt command the economy to increase employment. But that is, to use quite different language, the workhouse or poorhouse writ large. Yet Prof Krugman accuses only those with whom he disagrees of such barbarity. Tho this accords very well with the Whiggish sensibility, in which things are progress when they benefit, but tyranny when they do not. In any case, Rogoff, himself no classical, calculated that countries with public debt above 90 percent of GDP grow by an average of 1.3 percentage points per year slower than less indebted countries, and we are already there.

      This has all been played out numerous times in the past, at least as far back as Nero's Rome. Certainly in Tudor England, when Vives published his tract on poor relief. The Protestant Reformation arose, not just out of Church abuse, but financial abuse generally. And I think it likely the last century's world wars will be seen by future historians to have had a far less fortunate outcome than we declaim today.

    31. Gelles  05/03/2012 06:42 AM Report

      I see I typed a few sentences that need editing. Too bad CR is too cheap to provide an editor like Amazon does for all its thousands of forums.

      An editor! An editor! My kingdom for an editor.

      This old PC is working pretty good. My son and Ma Bell of AT&T have got the wireless adapter up to snuff. It's three-thirty now. Back to sleep. I miss Topaz girl's wisdom. You three bozos I would not miss if you took a long vacation -- too South America that is. As for REMember the Maine, forget him. He is as useless as tits on a boar. All his writing would not solve a cross-word puzzle, let alone why the richest nation if earth is flirting with a liquidity trap when it's time to cross the Rubicon and power the end of scarcity. Imagine those great oceans and all that sunshine. Imagine the day we talk with wales, in a manner of speaking, and learn to eat lower on the food chain than we ordinarily do. We may learn to live right and behave well. We may even earn the blessings all around us.

    32. Gelles  05/03/2012 06:19 AM Report

      Predictions are in order, on this the 3rd of May 2012.

      Tom Coburn (interviewed by Charlie Rose the other day -- who boasts he knows "NO history" and rejects Keynes' MONETARY SYSTEM OF PRODUCTION), Mr. tabs of this forum, and Ricardo Montalbán Amaral of Brazil and South America form a trio of self appointed seers argue against PAUL KRUGMAN and JOHN GELLES -- THE DYNAMIC kEYNESIAN DUO -- who really know the score and put up the big bucks against that motley trio who know nothing. These are the cast of five predictors. In a very short time we will see who are the idiots -- and who the decent earthlings who, with Ben Bernanke, know that credit is only a promise but legal tender is KING for as long as guns enforce the law and the law decides who's got confederate dollars and who's got solid gold when it comes to food and motor cars and other things we want to buy.

      Coburn, you are a silly person who talks fast and cannot think at all. Read your record in Wikipedia -- and weep.

      Tabs, you are with Coburn. You do not remember or know that Mariner Eccles and President Roosevelt put the money of the United States behind the arsenal of democracy that joined with Russia's continental out-sized army and Britain's grand empire to crush Hitler and burn Tokyo until all of hell was under water and the temperature on earth subsided for a while.

      Now Ben Bernanke, the Mariner Eccles of today, will give us the money, Americans will furnish the goods (as off-shore wage-lowering job transfers are reigned in), and Krugman and Gelles will make the bets that that dumb trio above is made to look like the donkeys they are.

      What goods? The hydrogen we want as fuel, and the carbon we want as structural raw material to be fastened into everything and but not into CO2!

      And we want food, water, good health, good schools, and a new found appreciation for cooperation, collaboration and diplomatic compromise, as rigid competitive nationalism is again brought to heel. WW I and WWII were only the beginning. They taught us cost accounting.

      The current initial WW III we are in will not end as war at all. It will turn soon into peace, with America leading the human race to enforce human rights.

      Amaral, you disappoint me. You are not a fool. You know Keynes had it all right. Capitalist fundamentalists have the market all wrong: market prices come second to cost accounting as the way to plan production when you cannot afford to lose.

      Krugman, Bernanke and Gelles will get their act together. We will rescue our 50 states and put money in their banks. We will use it to pay the firemen, teachers, police and construction crews to rebuild America and all the rest of world via our example.

      And we will turn sunlight into infinite tons of hydrogen fuel to store and use whenever necessary as it powers our factories, trucks and cars, and warms our space and cools our water into ice for a high ball after work.

      You three give me laugh and make me wonder if you're alive. Visit our plans for info-tech, bio-tech and nano-tech, study our approach to credit and money that focuses on output and conforms debt what it can do and what it can't.

      Debt-free money is explained in Ron Morrison's "Keynes Without Debt", tomorrow was explained by Benjamin Franklin whose lightening rod saved my families' lives only a few weeks ago: yes we were struck by lightening, that's why I'm smart and you three are so uninformed.

      What about President Obama? Is he with us or you? Does he even know? He has been contaminated by the University of Chicago. That damn place ought to shipped to Brazil where they turn sugar into fuel and ocean bottom's into oil. It's time for them to stop putting CO2 into our air. Save the forests. Teach themselves English, Portuguese ain't going anywhere.

      Well, friends, keep on Charlie Rose-ing. He smiles and chuckles at everything. He wondered if Tom Coburn was insane? Why wonder? He is.

    33. Ricardo_Amaral  05/03/2012 03:56 AM Report

      Gelles, let me clarify my statement: "Wall Street doesn't screw only communities around Europe, they also screw communities around the United States, and as these predators leave wreckage and wastelands behind them, they have moved in for the kill on their next victim, it will be an easy prey: Brazil"

      I am referring to "Goldman Sachs the Pillage People" and their global network of thieves.

      I am sorry to say that Brazil is the next prey, or victim that these these parasites and predators are going to destroy.

      Only idiots and suckers still doing business with that organization, since doing business with these people is the same as doing business with Bernie Maddof.

      There's one thing that you can bet on it: it's just a matter of time for you to get screwed by these thieves - that's the only way they know how to make money - by screwing people out of their money.

      .

    34. Ricardo_Amaral  05/03/2012 03:45 AM Report

      Gelles, Here is a great program produced by Frontline - I suggest that people should watch at least Part One and Part Four. Each episode is about one hour.

      May 2, 2012

      SouthAmerica: On the episode One of this series Frontline includes a very well done documentary explaining the “Derivatives” market, and the creation of a new lethal product called the “Credit Default Swaps”.

      This documentary about “Derivatives” and “Credit Default Swaps” is very important for people to grasp what is behind the latest estimate figure of US$ 730 trillion dollars “derivatives nuclear weapon” market that can explode at any time resulting in a catastrophic meltdown of the global economy.

      Frontline 4-Part series about Wall Street and the collapsing US financial system - one hour each episode:

      Frontline: Money, Power, & Wall Street – May 1, 2012

      http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/money-power-wall-street/?autoplay

      Part 1 – Frontline explain the development of “Credit Default Swaps” a type of derivative.

      Part 2 – Henry Paulson and the Wall Street bailout

      Part 3 – Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve and the collapsing global banking system.

      Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve supplied US$ 7.7 trillion dollars to keep the game going for a while longer until the entire House of Cards meltdown.

      Part 4 – Wall Street has specialized in scamming people around the world – that is how the system works, and it is how Wall Street has been making money for many years.

      Wall Street doesn't screw only communities around Europe, they also screw communities around the United States, and as these predators leave wreckage and wastelands behind them, they have moved in for the kill on their next victim, it will be an easy prey: Brazil

      *****

      Derivatives: “financial weapons of mass destruction”

      The derivatives market is an unregulated market that is in automatic pilot, and since the financial meltdown in September/October 2008 when the entire global financial system was collapsing – at that time the total outstanding notional amount of all derivatives rose from $673 trillion at June 30, 2008 to $708 trillion at June 30, 2011 – and to the latest estimated figure of US$ 730 trillion dollars as of December 31, 2011.

      In a 1994 cover story by Carol J. Loomis on Fortune magazine, Fortune called derivatives, then relatively new on the scene, "The Risk That Won't Go Away."

      Years later derivatives grabbed everyone’s attention when Warren Buffett called it “financial weapons of mass destruction”

      The derivatives market was at the core of the events regarding the global financial meltdown of the September/October 2008.

      The derivatives threat is back in a big way, and that market is ripe to explode into a catastrophic chain reaction that can result in a massive meltdown of the entire global financial system.

      I have no idea who is in the other side of these derivatives with a notional amount outstanding of US$ 708 trillion US dollars as reported by the Bank for International Settlements.

      BIS Quarterly Review – December 2011 – Page A 131

      Table 19: Amounts outstanding of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives Notional amounts outstanding as of June 2011 = US$ 708 trillion

      ...According to the Bank for International Settlements, the total outstanding notional amount is US$708 trillion (as of June 2011). Of this total notional amount, 67% are interest rate contracts, 8% are credit default swaps (CDS), 9% are foreign exchange contracts, 2% are commodity contracts, 1% are equity contracts, and 12% are other. Because OTC derivatives are not traded on an exchange, there is no central counter-party. Therefore, they are subject to counter-party risk, like an ordinary contract, since each counter-party relies on the other to perform.

      *****

      http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3402261&highlight=trillion+dollars+in+derivati ves#post3402261

      SouthAmerica: In a Nutshell:

      The global banking system is at the edge of the abyss, and we would have a massive global financial meltdown, if they were not trying to play games with the figures, and trying very hard to hide their massive losses the best way they can.

      What this US$ 730 trillion dollars figure is telling me is that most of the derivatives is nothing more than a humongous “Ponzi Scheme” that can blow up at any time and start a massive chain reaction that can destroy the entire global financial system – it will be remembered as: the mother of all financial meltdowns.

      During the great depression of the 1930's we had the stock market collapse of 1929, then in the following 3 years the stock market bounced back, then in 1932 started the real nasty decline that sunk the stock market and the US economy into the bottom of the abyss.

      Today, we have reached that special 1932 turning point: the point where the stock market and the US economy it will sink like the Titanic.

      What I am saying is: it does not matter who will be the next president of the United States, because we are entering the catastrophic phase of the new great depression similar to the period from 1932 to 1940.

      We are going to have real rough years ahead of us. It's not going to be a pretty sight.

      You can bet on that!!!!!!!

      By the way, this new great depression that is underway, it will be a lot worse than the great depression of the 1930's.

      You might be wondering why the US mainstream media has not been using the term “Great Depression” to described what has been going on in the economy of many countries all over Europe, and in the United States?

      Only few years in the future they will look back to this period that we are going through, and then they will start calling this period the “First Great Depression of the 21st Century.”

      My guess is that in 2012 we will have another massive global financial meltdown worse than the one we had in 2008.

      We never had before so much government interference and manipulation on the financial markets the way that we have today, and it is hard to predict what would create the spark that would blow up the entire global financial system – but that could happen at any time.

      .

    35. Ricardo_Amaral  05/03/2012 03:38 AM Report

      Gelles, as you can see on on this video, it is too late, since the United States is already a police state:

      Gerald Celente - This Week in Money - 30 Apr 2012

      http://youtu.be/_VyA_10tV34

      .

    36. tabs  05/03/2012 03:38 AM Report

      The following does not reflect all of ones thoughts, nor is as succinct as one would like but one will let it stand.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      Where is Chuck Barris and his GONG when you need it. Does anybody take Mr Krugman seriously? If they do they deserve to sit in a corner with a dunce cap on Why? Mr Krugman's mantra is MORE CHICKEN SOUP SERVED IN BIGGER PORTIONS..as the solution to the Global slowdown brought on by a condition of being over leveraged.

      1. Mr Krugman's cites the US in the 30's, China and Korea recently as examples of Stimulus programs working. This is fine if you have cash in the bank like China and Korea or have s sterling credit rating with a low debt ratio like the US in the 30's Then all your doing is taking cash out of the bank and applying it. However when one starts off with 10T USD indebtedness trying to solve a debt problem by borrowing more??? All one winds up doing is exacerbating the problem by taking more capital out of the system which could be directly invested, adding interest cost and rerouting it through a middleman who is known for their inefficiencies..

      2. Then when Mr Krugman discovers that he is talking himself into a corner he states "Deficits don't matter" citing the UK having a high debt to GDP ratio for decades. Yes, and one recalls the line in the Beatles song "TAXMAN" which they wrote as they packed their bags to leave the country, "Nineteen for you and one for me," the rolling blackouts of the 70's, the gutted manufacturing sector, the continuing high unemployment rate and now a Conservative government that has instituted harsh austerity measures to stave off imminent collapse with the attendant civil unrest of people getting cut off the dole. Yes everything has worked out just fine in the UK Mr Krugman.

      3. Then Mr Krugman states that the economy is mending slowly and it will take some years for things to work themselves out BUT if his policies were applied we could return to a vibrant economy in a year to 18 months so why wait for all those years where unrepairable harm will take place. So we finally see it, the desire of the infant for instant gratification. This goes to the heart of the problem that got us where we are in the first place. You deserve it, why wait, just put it on the credit card. There is something to be said for the process of letting things naturally sort themselves out and that is, real change that lasts takes time to implement. That is the order and process of Evolution.

      In the end Mr Krugman is a victim of over 70 years of bad decision making which has now become the conventional wisdom of the day. Bad or faulty decision making begets bad decision makers.

      TABS

    37. Ricardo_Amaral  05/03/2012 03:34 AM Report

      Gelles, fyi my screen name at the Elite Trader Economics Forum is: SouthAmerica

      .

    38. Ricardo_Amaral  05/03/2012 03:32 AM Report

      Gelles, I started this thread at the Elite Trader Economics forum in May 2005 and here is some of the postings on that web site:

      NYT - Paul Krugman - 1928 and the Market Crash

      http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=49920&perpage=6&pagenumber=9

      ...April 29, 2012

      SouthAmerica: Because the mainstream media, and most economists are not recognizing that the new Great Depression is underway - very few people such as myself, has been saying for a few years that the “First Great Depression of the 21st Century” has been underway. This is a very important point that most people doesn't understand and they don't grasp regarding the current “Great Depression”: Only a few years in the future the mainstream media, and most economists in general will look back to this period in history that we are going through, and then they will finally start calling it the “First Great Depression of the 21st Century.”

      ***

      http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=49920&perpage=6&pagenumber=4

      ...May 21, 2006

      SouthAmerica: There are a handful of economists that I read on a regular basis and respect their opinion, and Paul Krugman is among them. I am sure he will receive the Nobel Prize for Economics in the future. In my opinion he is one of the best economists the US has today.

      I happen to agree with a lot of things Paul Krugman writes about.

      The other two economists that I respect and read their writings are: Stephen Roach, (from Morgan Stanley) and Martin Wolf (from The Financial Times – UK).

      .

    39. Gelles  05/03/2012 02:00 AM Report

      In accordance with copyright law, at the teachable moment, within a not-for-profit forum, we copy for the mutual benefit of copyright owner and people in general, the following comment from Amazon.com:

      A call-to-arms from Nobel Prize–winning economist and best-selling author Paul Krugman.

      The Great Recession [today's suffering] is more than four years old—and counting. Yet, as Paul Krugman points out in this powerful volley,

      "..... Nations rich in resources, talent, and knowledge—all the ingredients for prosperity and a decent standard of living for all—remain in a state of intense pain."

      How bad have things gotten? How did we get stuck in what now can only be called a depression? And above all, how do we free ourselves? Krugman pursues these questions with his characteristic lucidity and insight.

      He has a powerful message for anyone who has suffered over these past four years -- a quick, strong recovery is just one step away, if our leaders can find the "intellectual clarity and political will" to end this depression now.

      ===== end of Amazon clip =====

      Exactly my sentiments.

      As I, JJG, have written before, spell out the detail as a for instance -- or even many of them:

      -- Rescue the 50 State Governments who have no money monopoly of their own.

      -- Invest in clean energy independence.

      -- Invest in Education; R&D; Training; Infrastructure; Defense in space, deep ocean spaces, cyberspace, and prevention of nuclear and WMD wars, etc; Water; Prevention of poverty; Output based money systems; Inflation prevention systems; Basic income systems, etc.

      A President who is afraid to mobilize the nation for peace and war prevention has no business seeking a second term. He has only days left to prove his re-election will not be a disaster.

    40. Gelles  05/02/2012 11:51 PM Report

      Krugman is about the best of the pundits. But he is too conservative too. When he says we can do recovery fast, he's right on. He ought to add energy independence to infrastructure development to sate rescues, etc. Put all our needs together and we have even more steam than for WW II. Let's do it !!!

    41. Gelles  05/02/2012 11:46 PM Report

      Unless the President establishes his determination to avoid corporate profit maximization and risk of a new national socialism (aka Nazi and Fascist parties) I will NOT again vote for him.

      Nor do we really want an arms race in space and underseas between Russia, China and the West. We do not need same to create jobs enough for all.

      So let us talk reality and common sense. Put Coburn out to pasture. Bring James Galbraith to the CR Table.

    42. Gelles  05/02/2012 11:40 PM Report

      Krugman ought to make it clear that America can be the arsenal of Democracy to PREVENT war -- as well as wage war.

      If we become that, we will not export jobs to reduce wages. We will build full employment of labor and capital as part of the elementary objectives of the budgeting and monetary systems.

    43. Richard_DeBiase  05/01/2012 04:03 PM Report

      I realize that the Drug War is supposed to be a "commie" make-work program to keep criminal justice workers employed. But Paul Krugman said it would be better to do useful work. Personally, I would be happy to pay the DEA their full salary if they would just go home and take up stamp collecting or fishing.

      George Will had an interesting comment about the Drug War [paraphrased], the government will spend $100,000 to stop a $200 drug deal (http://www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/will041212.php3).

      Paul Krugman kept saying, rehire the teachers. That's a laugh. The teachers shot themselves in the foot, by constantly saying that the Drug War is the one indispensable program. So when we did start disposing of programs, education (not the Drug War) was a program that could be cut.