Charlie Rose

mgmontini  02/21/2012 05:54 PM Report

Just a few brief comments.

1) Like Germany and the USA before it, China is a fast rising economic force through it's development of infrastructure, government processes, and industry. Both of these countries (USA being the most recent) used its economic power to build a strong military force that eventually successfully competed against the established powers (though not all "won" in that power struggle - such as Germany). Both of these countries also began to dominate the economic systems in place. There are other historical examples, such aa England's displacement or Spanish power. This is the same path China is on now; it is already spending more on its military to try to improve its capabilities; not to mention it growing economic power and influence as it develops its industry and infrastructure.

2) Though the USA did depend on international trade for its economy for a long period of time, it'd vast land mass, vast resources , huge population, allowed much of its economic development and related infrastructure development to be relatively independent of foreign/international market influences, since it could depend on it own huge market and resources to fuel growth and development. After WWII, the USA was a lone economic force in the world, depending only on its domestic markets for demand-spurred growth. China has many of the same characteristics. To say it will always be interdependent with the rest of the world through its need of foreign markets to further growth via international trade is mistaken. Though it (like the USA before) depends on international trade for its economic wellbeing, it has a large enough domestic market that it will soon be able to continue its impressive growth using its domestic markets only once the domestic wealth has built up a big more (much like what happened in the USA). At that point, it will be economically powerful enough to "balk" at what the rest of the world wants, and can support a military that os much more powerful than it has today (like the USA and Germany before it).

Ricardo_Amaral  02/20/2012 04:59 AM Report

My other posting was a follow up to this posting at that same forum:

February 19, 2012

SouthAmerica: This BBC program shows to the world what American is becoming very fast.....a collapsing society, a collapsing economy....and the slow death of another former superpower.

Poor America - BBC Panorama - 13 Feb 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlZqaXd0uRg

Note: As usual the US mainstream media is in a coma, they became obsolete and they are dying very fast, and at this point they can't report anymore even about what is happening around the United States.

Thanks to the foreign media, this time the BBC from the UK, we have a program about the social collapse of American society....

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Ricardo_Amaral  02/20/2012 04:56 AM Report

The Crumbling of America

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3452499#post3452499

...February 20, 2012

SouthAmerica: Reply to Nutmeg

On my last posting I said the following: “As usual the US mainstream media is in a coma, they became obsolete and they are dying very fast, and at this point they can't report anymore even about what is happening around the United States.

Thanks to the foreign media, this time the BBC from the UK, we have a program about the social collapse of American society....”

There's a simple reason why this is important to document it, and the US mainstream media is not doing their job as usual.

It doe not matter how the US government and the US mainstream media want to sugar coat it, but the reality is that we are descending very fast into the second leg of a global great depression, and people should be aware of what is happening to all of us.

Do you think the official unemployment figures of around 25 percent for many European countries it does not mean anything?

Look at what is happening in Greece, Portugal, Ireland, England, France, Spain, Italy, and in many other countries....Don't forget Egypt, Tunisia, Iraq, and all the other countries in the Middle East including Israel were high unemployment and high food prices is becoming a major problem and is getting completely out of control.

High unemployment is a real problem also to many countries in Asia, in Africa, and the United States government unemployment figures is not worth the paper that is not printed on. If the US government had the courage necessary for reporting the real unemployment figures in the US economy, instead of the garbage that they report on a monthly basis, then the real unemployment figure today for the US economy it would be between 22 to 25 percent. And the real US economy continues to imploding month after month....

Please don't give me the bullshit that the US stock market is doing very well, because it is the Ben Bernanke market, based on artificial Fed gimmicks, massive federal government intervention, and now the US Federal Reserve is extending its artificial economic games to other central banks around the world including the European Central bank – without all this central banking artificial intervention, the entire global financial system it would be spinning completely out of control right now.

Even many of the best US companies, their profits are being generated by laying off people, in a global basis.

As I have been writing about for a few years the “first great depression of the 21st century” has been underway, and now we are entering the second leg of the depression when the shit really hits the fan...

Only years from now in the future, historians and the mainstream media will recognize and will start referring to our time as being in a “great depression” - and that is why the US mainstream media needs to record what is actually happening around the country, and start reporting it to the public.

The denying about what is happening around us by the US government and the US mainstream media here in the United States it doesn't fix the problem, and it doesn't make it to go away also, may just make things even worse for everyone.

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Ricardo_Amaral  02/17/2012 03:42 AM Report

Battlefield USA 2012: Gerald Celente on year's top trends – February 16, 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PG6Fh0SWMJs

Gerald Celente, the founder of the Trends Research Institute gives RT's Marina Portnaya his predictions for the headlines of tomorrow. OWS movement, US presidential elections, economic embargo on Iran are among the issues discussed.

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Ricardo_Amaral  02/17/2012 03:26 AM Report

Here is a reality check for Robert Kagan - check the video about innovation that I posted on this thread about Apple stock:

Apple stock

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=1b613b1db106af51524a9a2ee23eb544&threadid=236770&perpa ge=6&pagenumber=3

Here is what I posted on the Elite Trader Forum about the Facebook – IPO:

Facebook - IPO

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=9fcf182f940a66b905815707ff3e43f4&threadid=235856

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Ricardo_Amaral  02/17/2012 02:35 AM Report

http://www.brazzil.com/component/content/article/241-january-2012/10550-how-brazil-is-getting-ready-t o-crush-an-expected-us-invasion-of-the-amazon.html#comments

written by Ricardo C. Amaral, February 02, 2012

Ricardo: You keep harping on the same issue regarding the US military, and you can't grasp even to try to save your life this simple fact:

I guess you missed this part of Emmanuel Todd's analysis:

"The only remaining superiority is military. This is classic for a crumbling system. The final glory is militarism. The fall of the Soviet Union took place in an identical context. Their economy was in decline, and their leadership grew fearful. Their military apparatus gained in size and stature and the Russians embarked on adventures to forget their economic shortcomings. The parallels in the US are obvious. The process has significantly accelerated in the past few months."

Emmanuel Todd wrote about the collapse of the Soviet Union 15 years before the final collapse occurred. In 2003 he predicted the coming collapse of the United States empire, and so far everything it seems to me is going just as he predicted.

By the way, when the final collapse materialize the first thing to go is the military power. When the rest of the world stop accepting worthless US dollars, then the US military will crumble almost overnight.

Remember how powerful the Soviet Union military power used to be during the cold war?

The Soviet Union also had the military superiority type of delusion.

And just look what happened to the Soviet Union in the blink of an eye ...as soon as the financial collapse became a reality for the Soviet Union, their military had a major meltdown resulting in obsolescence almost overnight.

Reality check: Collapsing Soviet Union system = collapsing United States economic and financial system.

Everywhere you look at the US economic and financial system is imploding. And the US foreign policy is not far behind it is pathetic and a joke and the only thing that anyone with a minimum of common sense can do today is laugh about on how the entire system is spinning completely out of control.

Compared with what is happening today around the globe regarding the United States leadership and actual results, the achievements of General George Armstrong Custer look like the American symbol for what Americans consider an outstanding job....

Hah, hah, hah...

Here is a short list of the best of what Americans can achieve today:

1) Iraq = a pathetic situation with the compliments of the USA, and a civil war spinning out control.

2) Afghanistan = after 10 years of American intervention the place is a major mess and also spinning out control.

3) Pakistan = a joke of American intervention and diplomacy and the place is also spinning completely out of control.

4) Libya = After US through NATO destroyed the entire infrastructure of that country - the country is in the middle of a nasty civil war which is spinning out of control by the minute.

5) Egypt = American intervention on the internal affairs of countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, and so on...all these countries are a massive mess like never before.

6) Syria = The United States want to turn Syria into a wasteland in the same way they turned Libya into chaos.

7) Iran = the United States has been tormenting the Iranians and interfering on the internal affairs of their country since the CIA overthrew the legitimate democratic elected government of Iran in 1952 to install on its place a nasty dictator - a puppet of the United States which was a disaster for the Iranian people.

In a nutshell:

The only thing that the United States has been good at since the early 1960's is in creating chaos around the world.

I could list many other American fiascos around the world in the last 50 years including the US military defeat in Vietnam.

These are facts that the entire world have been watching over the years resulting in United States declined in prestige and influence around the world.

Basically today, you have to be a complete idiot to follow American leadership to just about anything.

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mikemaxwell  02/16/2012 10:52 PM Report

Back off boys.

Where are the girls by the way? Do they have better sense than to waste their energy blathering away with their ego-forward bullcrap?

This guy makes a lot of sense. Maybe you don't buy everything he says, maybe I don't either, but he's due a listen. He has an overview, and it might contain some seeds of reality. He's not blathering, at least.

Gelles  02/16/2012 01:38 PM Report

China is afraid of freedom that is bound to turn to license and rebellion that will inevitably lead to chaos.

America is afraid of common sense and common purpose to prevent loss of freedom in the name of having "yours" when others are your slaves.

Chimerica is the worst of both fears.

How do we move from Chimerica to the best of both plans? Reform opposition to human rights to embrace and not defeat the right to a fair share of all our systems offer. Reform business to tenure excellence. Reform law to use only common language, short rules, and results that justify what it says. Reform science to be easier to learn than not. Reform finance to support supply and demand and never short change either. Reform war to kill bacteria and viruses and let people and friendly animals keep the peace and love their time and place here and now.

Gelles  02/16/2012 01:03 PM Report

The issue is global peace to make possible human rights and their practical achievement. The solvable problems are scarcity of necessities, know-how, can-do and money.

Money, as we know it, has no common purpose. It is an autistic system caught in an endless loop in search of price. It can be reformed to end scarcity and motivate cooperation to compete in win-win games.

Kagan counsels America to open its mind to leadership by example and achievement and close its prisons and its ties to corruption in business and in politics. Its past is prelude to achievement not denial of truth, reason, and common sense and purpose.

We need to promote twin systems of supply: one competitive and always changing. The other cooperative, consistent, and independent of systems that can fail. If we would follow the Golden Rule and the Preamble, we cannot allow poverty, prisons and pollution to exist longer than their due.

We do not need half of us to vote for one "party" or the "other". We need half to work for one "system" or the "other". The one we have today allows debt to exceed equity.

The new one we must build on principles of fairness and real equity will have money free of debt whose purpose is supply and whose demand never wavers. Call it equitarian scientific humanism not libertarian idealistic individualism.

What about our past and future? The one is fixed, the other open to leadership by people who love life and would protect it from cruelty, ignorance and evil.

griffinfinity  02/16/2012 11:59 AM Report

I thought Robert Kagan had a lot of interesting things to say. I did take exception to his believe that apologizing to these other countries doesn't add up to much. After all, he had made the point earlier that the USA is viewed as a stable superpower that everyone (most everyone) wants to mediate/consult with over issues. He implied that we are seen as trustworthy to an extent around the globe. Well, you cannot get any of these traits attributed to you unless you do things like apologizing when you are wrong. It goes the same way with any individual relationship. Be seen as the arrogant person who cares not what others think or go through and you do not get that respect he points to. So the apologies are necessary after all.

Gelles  02/16/2012 08:06 AM Report

I have commented tonight on all three interviewees in Charlie Rose' finest hour. I have saved Kagan for the last, as CR did.

I had intended to say very little about Kagan's presentation. Rather than write about it I would read it many times over. It was, by far, the best and most useful presentation of the night.

Then I read the trash that REM offered. I thought I ought to answer nonsense with worthwhile opinion. And now I'm back to my original idea. It's already 4:40 in the morning. My comments on Huntsman and Kissinger lead to conclusions like those of Kagan. I'll just leave things there -- and take this up again tomorrow.

Kagan and Kissinger are Jewish Americans. They offer understanding and advice -- I like Kagan's best (among the four -- H, K, K and Rose) and will cover it tomorrow as I have said.

REM remarked on a Jewish feature of matters discussed. He said no more than the one word "Jewish". REM also remarked on Benjamin Franklin's "Americanism".

Franklin is another of my great heroes. He put money to work long before our Revolution as it must be. REM misses that point.

When Washington and Franklin and Americans of every stripe began this nation, the Jew Haym Solomon,a Spanish and Portuguese Jew who immigrated to New York from Poland to become an American patriot, was instrumental in putting money to work for the benefit of all of us. REM probably wanted us not to forget that.

jason  02/16/2012 02:09 AM Report

the guy is a moron. he said in the last 40 yrs, US' share of world GDP remain stable. no decline at all. anyone who studies history knows US rose to become superpower in 1940s (70 yrs ago), by 1980s (exactly 40 yrs ago), US became the sole hyper power. of course, our share of world GDP was "stable". question is, what happened since 20 yrs ago? "tabs" is right again -:), "the man whistling while walking past the graveyard at midnight", except i would add, it was a BLIND MAN!! -:)

ShalomFreedman  02/16/2012 01:29 AM Report

This interview does not do justice to Kagan's book. He is a much more forceful presence on the page than he is in speaking. His argument resisting the conventional wisdom regarding present American decline is broad- ranging on touches on the military, economic, political and cultural spheres. One of its most convincing elements is his speaking about previous eras of so - called American decline and crisis, such as the seventies with its Vietnam War, high unemployment, general Carter era malaise. Kagan's argument, and here is an important point which Charlie Rose emphasized is essentially that American predominance is important not only to the United States, but all those who care for Democracy and Freedom in the world.

tabs  02/15/2012 03:45 PM Report

Mr Kagan is like a man whistling while walking past the graveyard at midnight. It is not that Mr Kagan's history is so terrible it is his choice of which dots to connect, the interpretation and conclusions he makes that are soooo Pollyannaish that one gets a sugar high just listening to him.

rshaeri  02/15/2012 01:33 PM Report

President Obama never "apologized" for the overthrow of Dr. Mosadegh in Iran. He merely acknowledged that in middle of the Cold War, the US was "involved" in the overthrow.

REMant  02/15/2012 11:49 AM Report

Kagan's understanding of history and economics is so bad his opinion isn't really worth commenting on except to point out his bias, thoroughly neocon (as is his father, an authority on conflicts of the ancient Greeks). And he defines decline entirely as a matter of coercive, particularly military power. The president would no doubt like to believe this, because, if it isn't true, he's Jimmy Carter. But none of this is the issue. One CAN be ordinary and get along with others. Not everyone is out to get us. By the same token we don't need to twist everyone's arms. I'd like to point out that the Kagan family is Jewish and while I probably don't need to say anymore than that, I would like to add that countries have gone belly up almost always because of financial imprudence, especially monetary policy, often as a result of biting off more than they can chew. But connected with this are inescapable moral issues having nothing to do with government.

He's a DC politico, member in good standing of the revolving door, who wrote speeches for George Schultz fresh out of school, newspaper pieces urging the invasion of Iraq, and co-founded the Project for a New American Century. He obtained a PhD from an area university only in 2005, for which he didn't research a normal dissertation, submitting instead a draft of his book Dangerous Nation, which attempted to prove that this country was never isolationist, clearly a straw man, the thesis startling only in its banality.*

While it may have sounded leftist to those who maintain the pretense this country only goes to war when attacked, and recall William Appleman Williams with horror, it's firmly in Bush-Obama territory. It has always been American policy to provoke retaliation, and then play the victim.

It was Machiavelli who may perhaps have first characterized this aspect of democracy in his Discourses on Livy, distinguishing between those cities which, like the Church, are timidly content to remain within themselves, and those aimed like Rome, at expansion, which he favored, altho not without considerable caveat. I don't remember what he had to say about coin clipping, but that's neither here nor there, since like Keynesian economics, conquest is supposed to pay for itself. For myself, I'd regard both as myths.

It was Ben Franklin who, thinking John Adams crazy, waxed rapturously on America's manifest destiny; projecting its population increase long before Malthus. But you can find such statements liberally sprinkled throughout the press of the revolutionary period. Americans have always been found in the Andrew Jackson mold - that's in large part why we came to blows with the mother country - yet I don't think you can necessarily equate that, as Kagan does in Whiggish fashion, to the 2nd Great Awakening, even if you believe, as many do, that movement concealed malicious avarice.

Commerce, after all, was supposed by many to be doux, mankind's needs spread across the globe, in the thinking of the Church's free trade theorists, for the promotion of friendly relations among them. I suppose you can believe this approximately equivalent to the notion that men were given wealth so that they can exhibit magnanimity, but a good part of the world has always thought of interpersonal relations not as a matter of envy, but of virtue, and war only a matter of honor. Hobbes, for example, pointed out that while this veil of tears was a war of all against all due to the Fall, and men should be glad to accept tyranny to obtain peace, he spent most of his effort explaining why natural law would be much better, differing not a jot from Locke, yet earning the enmity of the British religious establishment just as Mandeville would later, and Smith, too, whose position was just the same. I would submit this is the real difference between Europe and American attitudes, JQA in fact the exception proving the rule.

Indeed it's peculiar that Whigs can never seem to see war in that light, but always maintain like a parent with a strap that what they are inculcating is for their own good. Nor are they as benevolent to their captives. It is perhaps, too, why so many of our citizens reside in penitentiaries and why our educational system still treats adults as children, but I digress....

Andrew Bacevich, Boston University prof, Princeton PhD, West Pointer, retired colonel and Vietnam vet, who lost his son in Iraq, would perhaps provide a useful contrast. See his The Limits of Power: The End of American Exceptionalism. I doubt he'd be given any such prominence here, tho he was interviewed by Bill Moyers, who called that book the best read of the year as I recall. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Bacevich Charlie may cover for Kagan's appearance on this show by calling him a deservedly controversial figure or even a learned one; on the other hand, he may be merely trying to start a Republicans for Obama movement.

BTW, the Philippines democratic??? They'll probably be happy to learn that.

*The Economist's reviewer wrote: "'Dangerous Nation' will be a bit too Whiggish for many professional historians: Mr Kagan, who has spent the past few years, poor fellow, living in Brussels, trying to explain American power to the Euro-establishment, cannot help but write history with one eye on the present. Thus slave-holding America is a 'rogue state'; the civil war is America's first experiment in ideological conquest; and reconstruction is America's first experiment in 'nation building'." Likewise Edmund Morgan wrote in NYRB: "This book, like Paradise and Power, is not quite a defense of American views or policies. It is a narrative and analysis of what they have been. But given Kagan’s prominence as an exponent of current policies and his explanation of them in the essay and afterword, it is difficult not to read Dangerous Nation as historical justification for present positions." See https://www.american.edu/cas/news/history-robert-kagan-brookings-institution-senior-fellow.cfm; http://www.economist.com/node/7996998; http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2006/nov/16/inventing-the-liberal-republican-mind/