Arminio Fraga, Gavea Investments

with Arminio Fraga
in Business
on Wednesday, June 29, 2011 * * * * *

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Arminio Fraga of Gavea Investments on Brazil's economy

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South America
debt
money
economy
Arminio Fraga
Brazil
Economics

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  • Comments 33
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    1. vongleichent  02/24/2012 06:17 PM Report

      The old fashion way. Thumps up for that. If something works, you shouldn't be changing it. That's what I got out of it.

    2. falthaus  07/21/2011 04:34 PM Report

      Interesting, as he clearly pointed out: consumption is of course crucial to growth and recent developments have put it on a prominent position on the Brazilian economy in recent years..HOWEVER, it is not a sufficient condition for sustained growth in BR and any other Emerging Markets, far from it...very interesting interview, Charlie. Arminio was brilliant like always. Best, Fabio Althaus, CA, U.S

    3. doodah  07/05/2011 05:32 AM Report

      That is So True, Admiral. Mexicans believe they have a right to Texas, New Mexico, California (and maybe even Arizona). Also, I have noticed, Mexicans (and other Central and South Americans) HATE Brazil and Brazilians. I don't know why, They have absolute contempt for them. Perhaps Brazil has a tough immigration policy. Which I say, Good for Brazil; why should they squander a good thing that they have with a bunch of parasitical foreign beaners.

    4. Ricardo_Amaral  07/04/2011 11:00 PM Report

      doodah, don't forget the Mexicans are taking back California, New Mexico, Texas, and New Jersey - one Mexican at the time.

      We had no Mexicans that I know of here in New Jersey about 15 years ago. Now we have a ton of them around here.

    5. doodah  07/04/2011 07:08 AM Report

      ... centered on 'Problem Children (actually Adults) with Nothing to Offer'. Not In My Neighborhood.

      But thanks for the offer, but we'll take one Brazil and one Canada; that'll be good enough for the next 100 to 150 years.

    6. doodah  07/04/2011 06:49 AM Report

      Well, definitely Canada; and just possibly maybe Israel, but the rest of those countries, YUK! Hell No! I'd rather Blow them Up! .. I don't care for soap operas

    7. robdverity  07/03/2011 06:11 PM Report

      Ric n dood - such banter. tsk, tsk. Each with pts. buried within. (Sorry to admit.)

    8. Ricardo_Amaral  07/03/2011 05:44 PM Report

      doodah, what do you mean 51st state?

      Did you forgot to count Israel, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Colombia, Mexico, and Canada?

      .

    9. doodah  07/03/2011 08:50 AM Report

      ... you have to admire a Man of convictions (who should should also be a convict)

    10. doodah  07/03/2011 08:48 AM Report

      "... and with me on board, Goldman Suks will not just be the biggest cat in town, they will be the ONLY cat in town" - Hank Paulson

      An actual quote

    11. doodah  07/03/2011 08:41 AM Report

      Don't mind me, Admiral; I'm just practicing for my job interview with Goldman Suks (I want to be a Pillage People).

      It's better to be a cat than a mouse.

    12. doodah  07/03/2011 08:33 AM Report

      ... it's about time they climbed out of the coconut trees

    13. doodah  07/03/2011 08:30 AM Report

      It would be excellent for Brazilians, they would learn how to do things right.

    14. doodah  07/03/2011 08:28 AM Report

      I wouldn't object to making Brazil America's 51st state. It would be good for both parties. :)

    15. Ricardo_Amaral  07/02/2011 03:17 AM Report

      I also wrote on Brazzil magazine: "Today, Brazil is a target to anyone who is up to no good.

      Not only Brazil has a vast amount of untapped resources, but Brazil is where the action is today because of the massive investments being made because of the World Cup and the Olympics.

      Besides that, in my opinion, Brazil has a great future ahead of itself if Brazil plays its cards right today and in the coming years."

      .

    16. Ricardo_Amaral  07/02/2011 03:10 AM Report

      Regarding Brazil I posted the following on Brazzil magazine, the Elite Trader Economics forum, and in other web sites on the internet, as follows:

      My screen name on the ET economics forum is: SouthAmerica

      July 1, 2011

      SouthAmerica: I posted the following on Brazzil magazine on the comments section of an article, in response to another member's question, as follows:

      The world is waking up, and started revolting against all these corrupt political systems and politicians, and the bankers who are pillaging everything in sight.

      In Iceland the people draw the line, and they told the international bankers to go and screw themselves.

      In Greece the Greek people should adopt the guillotine as the new tool and strategy to clean up their problem with their politicians and the international bankers, since that worked very well for France a few years ago.

      Remember the criminals and thieves from “Goldman Sachs the Pillage People” that helped their corrupt Greek government to create this massive mess in Greece. And you can bet that “Goldman Sachs the Pillage People” made a lot money on that deal.

      The “Goldman Sachs the Pillage People” is laying off 230 people in New York and in other places, and they are in the process of increasing their staff by 200 people on their office in Brazil.

      That means that Brazil is in play, and they are going to set up Brazil for a fall, and they are going to pillage everything in sight in Brazil – look at Greece today and that is the future of Brazil after “Goldman Sachs the Pillage People” do their economic destruction job in Brazil.

      Brazil it will be a easy target for “Goldman Sachs the Pillage People” and their mafiosi network of scoundrels. It will be like taking candy away from little kids, because the Brazilian politicians are very corrupt, and most Brazilian business people today are trying to make an easy and fast buck.

      The Wall Street major houses and the major international bankers are running out of prey around the world that's why they are all descending into Brazil - to pillage everything in sight, since most of these bankers and Wall Street types are people who have no idea how to make an honest buck other than pillage other people's savings, and steal everything that they can get away with - they are like bottom feeders, parasites, and in the case of "Goldman Sachs the Pillage People" they represent pure cancer.

      .

    17. Ricardo_Amaral  07/02/2011 02:59 AM Report

      Arminio Fraga's interview surprised me, it turned out much better than I expected.

      If I recall correctlly, he sold a few months ago a piece of his company to JP Morgan.

      .

    18. SharkswithfrikingLazers  07/01/2011 02:47 AM Report

      China saves like crazy because they have no safety net. They won't spend because of their fear of what will happen if they don't have savings.

      In the US we hear time and time again that we don't save because we already have quite the government safety net.

      However, America is in a truly rotten time for savers and retirees, a time where you are virtually guaranteed to lose some of the purchasing power of your savings by insisting on safety. This has not always been the case. Historically, savers have earned about 1 percent a year over the rate of inflation on safe, short-term investments and up to 3 percent a year over the rate of inflation on longer term investments.

      The suppression of interest rates is being done to rebuild the banking industry, but you could think of it as a very high tax rate on savers— ALL of their return.

      Oh bankers . . . why must you punish us so?!

    19. JohnGelles  07/01/2011 12:16 AM Report

      Maybe some of my many recent comments were deleted. Not to worry. I have said before these archives ought to be cleaned up. If I was victim of such purge -- OK.

      In future I will keep my own Charlie Rose Show Archive.

      It will be on ustaxreform.us website at

      http://ustaxreform.us/charlie-rose-archive.htm

      It is where my own comments will be stored. I'll self-publish them as a book priced for free and as often as possible. There value will be beyond measure.

      At the moment the archive is empty.

      If you do the same I will link mine to yours -- unless yours is beyond the pale -- if ever.

    20. JohnGelles  06/30/2011 07:24 PM Report

      [continued]

      I better quit for a while. Fraga was a great guest. CR showed his hand: He thinks we need PAIN. That is nonsense. We need decisions. We need jobs. We are America the nation made of all the nations -- the one that needs to stay the best and continue to lead the West and all the rest.

      If Stockholm and Sweden take away our role and form a new Scandinavia to create the best examples of human business common sense, let us follow their examples and put our might at their disposal where justice so requires.

      Not continued until this discussion demands it. But it would not hurt CR to give some structure to his archive. As it stands, Charlie talks and America listens NOT !

    21. JohnGelles  06/30/2011 07:16 PM Report

      [CONTINUED]

      2. Brazil. Emerging nations MUST DEVELOP a GOOD GOVERNMENT.

      ..... Fraga stressed correctly that good government is essential for good economic and political results. Some government activity should involve only a few people -- other govt activity must be very large like (says Gelles, not Fraga) the army and the National Security Agency.

      3. Hyperinflation.

      ..... If we are to lick inflation and deflation, IMO, we will need an NESA to have the information needed by govt to maintain and increase BOTH supply and demand -- and to keep them in proper balance.

      ..... Fraga is a Greenspan. I am an Abba Lerner. He says let the guys who buy our sneakers at the mall and at Wal-Mart send the signals to our "system" on what we need. I say the opposite. Let government decide what level of defense and technological leadership we want. Let government buy such needs. Eliminate all direct taxes. Retain only taxes or related laws that prevent hyper-inflation. That will allow govt to spend enough money into circulation to protect liberty and prosperity. Private industry can join in competitive fair business practice to make a profit and sell great sneakers.

      4. Is the US a Good Model? Fire-fighting versus long term agenda.

      5. Must succeed in both SHORT and LONG term.

      6. CR -- Growth back on track.

      [TO BE CONTINUED]

    22. JohnGelles  06/30/2011 07:00 PM Report

      [CONTINUED]

      1. Emerging nations: Brazil, Russia, India, China -- From poor to higher living standards. Population.

      ..... CR asks about the BRIC nations generally. Fraga emphasizes they are each different from the other. They are large in land and people but small in per capita wealth. All are growing. You and I (in the audience) know they will be military rivals of ours -- whom we would like to be allies -- not enemies.

      ..... This need for them as allies, not as exporters and importers only, is PARAMOUNT -- but do we talk enough about that enough?

      ..... Before WWII Hollywood wanted Germans to import and see its movies to help each movie make more money? That was foolish. We should have hit them with the truth and tried to rid Europe of Hitler ASAP. From 1932 to 1939 some movies made more money. Our actions were deplorable.

      ..... Today we need to be up front with trading partners. Warren Buffet wants import certificates to better manage the development of BRIC exports that we can't handle to our own rational fair advantage. We have allowed their exports to kill our cities and industries. We are crazy and those who would crush wages for temporary gain are to blame. Warren Buffet should be President -- not Barack Obama. (If he were, he and CR would talk things over and I might want his job and his money.

      [to be continued]

      .

      2. Brazil. Emerging nations MUST DEVELOP a GOOD GOVERNMENT.

      3. Hyperinflation.

      4. Is the US a Good Model? Fire-fighting versus long term agenda.

      5. Must succeed in both SHORT and LONG term.

      6. CR -- Growth back on track.

      [TO BE CONTINUED]

    23. JohnGelles  06/30/2011 06:40 PM Report

      [CONTINUED]

      1. Emerging nations: Brazil, Russia, India, China -- From poor to higher living standards. Population.

      2. Brazil. Emerging nations MUST DEVELOP a GOOD GOVERNMENT.

      3. Hyperinflation.

      4. Is the US a Good Model? Fire-fighting versus long term agenda.

      5. Must succeed in both SHORT and LONG term.

      6. CR -- Growth back on track.

      7. AF -- must have DEMAND and supply. Health Care issues.

      8. IN THE END, US MUST DO RIGHT, and do it NOW.

      9. CR -- Inflict pain? AF -- Greece?

      10. The Business Cycle? Is it Necessary?

      11. CR Housing?

      12. Brazil consuming like American way.

      13. China needs to consume more.

      14. Global Inflation?

      15. Inflation is always doable -- can it be managed to be favorable not hyper?

      16

    24. JohnGelles  06/30/2011 06:23 PM Report

      Part 2 -- Arminio Fraga, Brilliant Brazilian Investor

      I have enjoyed listening to this middle of the road "Greenspan". He has manners, wit and opinions. This a the top of a Wikipedia entry:

      ==== BEGIN WIKIPEDIA =====

      Arminio Fraga (born July 20, 1957, in Rio de Janeiro) is a Brazilian economist who was president of the Central Bank of Brazil from 1999 to 2002. He is also a former associate of George Soros and his Quantum Fund. Since 2001 he has been a member of the influential Washington-based financial advisory body, the Group of Thirty.

      He received his PhD in economics from Princeton University in 1985.

      In 2003, he founded the Rio de Janeiro based investment company, Gávea Investimentos.

      Fraga has been called the Alan Greenspan of Latin America for his skillful handling of Brazilian monetary policy during his tenure as CBB president.

      Fraga worked for both Fernando Henrique Cardoso government.

      In 2009, he became a member of the International Advisory Council of the Chinese sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corporation.[1]

      In October 2010, Gávea Investimentos was acquired by Highbridge Capital Management, a subsidiary of J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

      ===== END WIKIPEDIA =====

      Now I will turn on the CR Show over Firefox and CR's excellent video flow software whose name I forget. It will be my third watching of this MOST IMPORTANT CR Show:

      [TO BE CONTINUED]

    25. JohnGelles  06/30/2011 05:40 PM Report

      The poem to someone (unnamed) who is (in part) responsible for our lack of employment on a job or for his or her own business and for other common failures of the American unsystematic system, is CUTE. Not SHARP. Read the "Ballad of Reading Gaol" by Oscar Wilde for SHARP, TRUE and a model of PERFECTION. ..... http://ustaxreform.us/tborg.htm .....

      ................. set font size to medium

      e. Tax Breaks and Government Revenues

      ..... Arminio Fraga and CR hold a great discussion overlapping this tiny portion of CR's remarks on the federal revenue deficit and tax loopholes that might be closed or might be left alone. In Part II of these comments I will cover this item.

      f. Libya and Gadaffi

      ..... The President ought to be supported for his Libya effort -- even though that effort needs a lot more American determination to oust the dictator who attacked us and was punished before by President Reagan. There will be a risk of poor results if America is blamed for making the Arab Spring our fight too soon: we can not be sure the Arab Spring will avoid becoming an inciter of terrorism against the West.

      g. Same Sex Marriage

      ..... Obama, Rose and Gelles want a world where straight habits not gay habits loom very large. Yet we want to be fair to our children and neighbors who may be gay by chance. This is not a new issue. But it is also not an easy-to-solve issue. Gay people deserve fair treatment. So does every person.

      [end part 1 of this discussion]

    26. anne4444  06/30/2011 03:30 PM Report

      To someone who screws up our economy:

      God saw us hungry, he created foods.

      God saw us thirsty, he created water.

      God saw us in the dark, he created light.

      God saw us without problems, he created YOU.

      Twinkle, twinkle little star.

      You should know who you are.

      And once you know who you are.

      Mental hospital is not so far.

      The rain makes all things beautiful.

      The grass and flowers too.

      If rain makes all things beautiful,

      Why it doesn't it rain on you?

      Roses are red; Violets are blue

      Monkeys like you should be kept in zoo.

    27. SharkswithfrikingLazers  06/30/2011 03:29 PM Report

      Yes, step one is to get our heads out of the sand and yes that is funny because it is so obvious.

      The sand in this case is dogma. We need to move from the dogma to simple math. If you tax at 18% of GDP and spend at 23% of GDP you need to raise money not just cut spending.

      Over 10 years, the total revenue loss from the Bush tax cuts comes to $3.9 trillion, according to the US Treasury.

      http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2010/1206/What-will-deal-on-Bush-tax-cuts-mean-for-the-federal- deficit

      Congress can do nothing and let the tax cuts expire. Doing nothing is the perfect prescription for them. There, problem solved. You are welcome.

      Now Mr. $2-trillion-on-the-sidelines--time to get off your butt and into the game.

    28. anne4444  06/30/2011 02:29 PM Report

      Thank you for his honest words.

      Saving has a future payoff and consumption pays off now. Over-leverage works like drugs, feeling God loves only for a moment and going hell afterward.

    29. JohnGelles  06/30/2011 01:46 PM Report

      [continued]

      d. Deficit Reduction

      ..... DR is not always a good idea. For one thing, if the budget we are trying to adhere to was based on counter-productive taxes (as it was) and money that did not include potential full production of the things that money can buy (which it was,) than the budget was a prescription for national failure.

      ..... If China can budget huge sums for the future and Scandinavian nations (perhaps to be led by Sweden) can budget for leadership in the green centuries to come, SO CAN WE !

      ..... Obama was elected president by me and you to budget for leadership of the free world to create the hydrogen economy, to end burning of carbon that risks environmental damage, to turn education into an activity that engages children's dreams not just keeps them off the streets, to give health care to the children too young to have money of their own -- not just to care for oldsters with one foot in the grave, to create necessary industrial and civil infrastructure that is crumbling all around us, to end terrorism and make peace, etc.

      ..... All the above are easier to do than win WW II or land on the moon.

      ..... FDR was elected to write budgets to win a war. JFK wrote a budget to land on the moon.

      ..... Obama has a budget for America to go to hell on.

      [continued]

      e. Tax Breaks and Government Revenues

      f. Libya and Gadaffi

      g. Same Sex Marriage

    30. JohnGelles  06/30/2011 01:24 PM Report

      [continued]

      c. My Job and the Job of Congress

      The President has his job description modeled on Herbert Hoover, as mentioned. He needs to look at Lincoln and other Presidents whose jobs were more nearly like his own.

      The conventional wisdom that our lives are ruled by chance not choice has its uses. But some of us believe we have a choice today -- to reform money creation to reflect the global capacity to produce. As it is, Bernanke wants to create the money we need. Congress will not help him. Obama seems not to have clue about the choice. He carries the Univ of Chicago flu. He needs to visit the Univ of Missouri Kansas City to learn what to do to match money to economic output not invested debt.

      [to be continued after breakfast]

      d. Deficit Reduction

      e. Tax Breaks and Government Revenues

      f. Libya and Gadaffi

      g. Same Sex Marriage

    31. JohnGelles  06/30/2011 01:15 PM Report

      [continued as promised]

      NOTE: THIS IS DONE FROM THE COMPUTER BROADCAST -- NOT TV -- and I made a bubu already: "we are changed by events not by elected leaders." (one word erased)

      b. Biden's Assignment

      Biden and the debt commission may have been assigned the job of reorganizing our debt (I cannot summon Google for facts on this computer at this time.)

      It will take great leadership to swap debt for equity or write it down to where debt-owners take a proper haircut. I believe Biden and Obama ought to think about debt and its purpose. Its purpose is not to cripple industry and labor. When debt does not pan out, as when equity investment (stocks) do not perform, we reorganize and move ahead -- FAST -- like Obama did with General Motors. By the way I want a Volt. And I might even buy one if I live long enough.

      [to be continued]

      c. My Job and the Job of Congress

      d. Deficit Reduction

      e. Tax Breaks and Government Revenues

      f. Libya and Gadaffi

      g. Same Sex Marriage

    32. JohnGelles  06/30/2011 12:59 PM Report

      Part 1. The Presidents News Conference

      a. Leadership

      Many who voted for Obama over McCain (like me) say to friends and family, "We need more leadership by Obama. He promised change if we could all do it together. Now he expects us all to do it together. We expected him to lead so effectively that change would get started. Evidently he is no leader. Or we, the voters, are so ornery that nobody can lead us -- we are changed by events by not by elected leaders."

      REMant, the first commentator, and I, want nearly opposite outcomes when it comes to change. So Obama waits for us to bring change -- he is president and we are not.

      I wanted Teddy Roosevelt. I elected (out of bad luck) Herbert Hoover.

      Obama killed the pirates with three shots. He killed Bin Laden with 24 men. He brought the change I elected him for TWICE !

      Obama saved GM. He brought the change I asked for THRICE !

      He did not create a job or micro-loan businesses for all in need of one or the other.

      So I am not a happy camper.

      [to be continued]

      b. Biden's Assignment

      c. My Job and the Job of Congress

      d. Deficit Reduction

      e. Tax Breaks and Government Revenues

      f. Libya and Gadaffi

      g. Same Sex Marriage

      h. Presidential Power to Bring Change

      i. The Debt Limit Deal (by August 2?)

    33. REMant  06/30/2011 10:57 AM Report

      Getting up in the morning and driving to work (which the president doesn't have to do anyway) is no measure of the ability to get a job done, and often impairs it. One thing the president certainly doesn't do on a regular basis is hold news conferences. He doesn't go home and see his constituents either, or rather when he does it's in a jumbo jet only to campaign and fund-raise, for which they pick up a good part of the tab. Patrons of public broadcasting shouldn't have to pay for this kind of propaganda as well.

      We are, of course, treating the Arabs exactly as our ancestors treated the Indians, before in the late 19th c, when they were nearly extinct, we decided their nobility should be celebrated in melodrama and side-shows. We are evicting some of them, but trying to help most, because it is felt they are uncivilized and in need of our disciplined ministrations. Except for the British and some missionaries, we are alone in this; the Europeans have never entertained such ideas. It is clear, however, that it has never worked, and the reservations no better than Gulags, ghettos, and internment or refugee camps. Our security would be a lot more certain if we simply minded our own business.

      Speaking of business, either the government doesn't belong in the marriage business, or doesn't belong in the democracy business. Take your pick.

      Now on the subject of tonight's show, I'll bet you could go a long way towards getting rid of the business cycle if you get rid of fractional reserve banking and similar attempts at extracting rent. I am not sure what else you will get rid of, but I am pretty sure it is not something really desirable. China, no doubt, had to do something or face dire circumstances, but just how well they've done in coming up to speed with the developed world remains to be seen. They have massively overspent, prompting overspending by their trading partners.

      Certainly bond holders (but I would argue a lot of others) have not paid their fair share of this "crisis," which is simply inflation in relation to productivity. However inflationists, if they are in any way rational that is, say when an economy has debt problems just depreciate the currency to spread the debt and everything will recover at a lower level (the enthusiasts, at the same level). Perhaps in the very long run, but moves of this sort are met by an even further rush to assets, and it is this which created the "debt" problem in the first place by encouraging overinvestment in such things instead of more productive ones. These situations instead have to be met with measures to take back such windfalls, and of course prevent that kind of inflationary enthusiasm from taking root again.