Charlie Rose

raed  07/02/2011 05:00 AM Report

The above hypothesis say it is sure that emerging market including China is growing above the average rate but it is difficult to say why it is. ( This also means we could see collapse in N11 which try to be like BRIC). As of today philipines stock market has great bull run last year, political crisis in Egypt( clearly shows economic reality not really strong), Iran stock boom, clash of investors due to stock market crash in Bangladesh. 4 out of 11 N11 is having serious problem of either market crash or speculative bubble formation.

andyferdinard  02/08/2011 09:59 PM Report

doodahdaze, may I asked what is your point of 'social engineering' in China? Does that mean more than 300 millions of Chinese(same no. of population in USA) like with only one dollar income per day?

When Chinese economical bubble got bust, China will become the next Egypt today(the best outcome I wish).

PetePatel  05/02/2010 08:27 PM Report

So who is ahead at the end of the day? When the banks get wiped out that is just like the government subsidy for housing they could never afford to build but needed. The equity boys are jacked. So it looks like China wins and everyone else looses. I know it sucks that aren't those the facts? I think global wealth as also produced global suckers!

doodahdaze  04/19/2010 09:02 PM Report

All China needs is a good Moses.

Corleone  04/19/2010 12:41 AM Report

This is Charley from China. Just to clarify a few numbers.

"right now construction costs in China are starting to hit $100 to $150 in some of the cities. That doesn’t sound a

lot by western standard -- per square foot, by the way."

That's not construction costs only. It should be construction cost+land cost. Such level could EASILY be seen in central urban areas in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen. It could also be seen in cities like Nanjing and Guangzhou, but only in a few cases (mostly in CBD areas). 200 miles western of the coast, you won't be able to find a level above $90.

"The typical Chinese condo is 100 square meters, about 1,100 square feet."

1100 square feet is typical of a condo, but not typical of a common chinese home. It's something around 700-800.

"Chinese two-income couple in their 30s probably makes combined $7,000 or $8,000 a year. "

That's a bit low for urban cities. In urban Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen where such condos are common, the combined income for a couple in their 30s is around $1,5000. In cities like Nanjing and Guangzhou where such condos are much less common, the combined income for a couple in their 30s living in urban areas is around $9,000. In other cities, $7,000 or $8,000 a year is common.

"Even if they were making $10,000 to $15,000 a year, you couldn’t carry a $150,000 condo. This is very similar to someone making $40,000 in the U.S. at the height of our bubble and buying an $800,000 house. "

That comparison is not quite accurate.

1.In China, people of the 1960s and 1970s have saved their salary for most of their lives. They just have zero leverage and their last residence was given to them by their then state-owned employer. For those people who wish to improve their living condition in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen, it's 20-years saving of two 1960s/70s vs. a new house under the current price.

2. For people of the 1980s, typically in China their parents would fully support their first purchase.

So, now it's 20-years saving of two 1960s/70s+cash flow from two 1980s vs. two new house under the current price.

For short-sellers, you could calculate the timing when the wealth of the old are exploited and the wage of the new are not enough.

doodahdaze  04/18/2010 07:34 AM Report

Your answer, sir brentschn.

He's probably 'shorting' companies that suck. From the top down. The ones with big bubble-headed CEOs and their 'teams' of kniving, snivling, good for shit, cohorts.

It must take a special talent to figure those companies out. Before everybody else does. Ehh, what are you gonna do?.

brentschn  04/14/2010 11:13 PM Report

The question I have is what companies is he shorting? Anyone have any ideas? I think the first company that comes to mind is US Steel (X). What percentage of business do they do in China? If so, could this impact their share price dramatically? What other companies are out there to short?

sullivan_k  04/14/2010 06:03 PM Report

I spent several months living and working in Shanghai in late 2008 through early ‘09. Having not so much as visited prior to relocating, I was surprised to find the image of a prosperous, modern, and thriving China to be inaccurate at worst, or at best the result of a merely superficial first impression. I was immediately mystified by the near constant din of construction, when so few residential high rises seemed fully occupied as it were. Walking home after long days at the office, I’d regularly find myself strolling along deserted super boulevards, as if I were living in a 22nd century ghost town instead of Xintiandi. In the span of five months I saw one retail property change hands three times, while high rise expat condominiums went up left and right, as if being built by Fraggles in the night. Every weekend I’d meet more and more expats who were headed home as a result of downsizing and I’d wonder: who will occupy those condos now? But I worked in sports and at that time was more than a decade past AP Economics; I felt I lacked the vocabulary and/or expertise to voice my distaste for the Chinese Kool-Aid.

Huge thanks for having Chanos on your fine program. I may now be unemployed, but the personal vindication was one heckuva shot in the arm. (Incidentally, my former company moved my job back to China to focus on the “huge potential” there; but I realized I’d rather be unemployed in America than mining fool’s gold in China.)

doodahdaze  04/13/2010 06:10 PM Report

Excellent interview/conversation/guest.

charlizecourriers  04/13/2010 05:47 PM Report

The Han dictatorship of 'China' is doomed. Only fools like Rose think that dicatatorships are smart-which tells you how smart Rose is.

doodahdaze  04/13/2010 04:45 PM Report

China may experience setbacks along the way, but they are ultimately doomed to own the world. The genius of their social engineering, as cold-hearted as it may seem by Western standards, the heart and genius of their 'social engineering' will pay them back dividends unbounded. Their intense 'investment' in 'single child' rearing will be the human capital superiority and the undoing of the morally depraved ambiguity of the rest of the world.

Viva American 'Idol'!! HaHa!

REMant  04/13/2010 01:45 PM Report

He's absolutely correct. The odd thing is that just a few hours earlier I wrote the same thing on the Newsweek website in response to the cover article. I had not seen the piece in the WSJ, tho I'd heard that many ppl feel that a bubble is brewing in China and I got a sense of it recently viewing a story on mushrooming Chonjqing. What is happening in China is exactly what happened in the 20's here and in Japan in the late 80's and early 90's, and for the same reasons, mercantilism, hence trade imbalances, and too much concentrated foreign investment, which invariably ends up in unproductive assets since mercantilism involves not only a kind of competitive possessiveness, but also a planned development. Think of the growth of London. Think of Hamilton's "Report on Manufactures" as well as, his "Report on Public Credit." They all go together, something which Keynes apparently overlooked when he advocated a return to it - or maybe not. But trade always has to balance in the long run in any overall economic system. It is not possible to continue to grow by impoverishing others. Although I dislike gambling as much as most others, short-selling has nothing to do with this. The fact that money in our global system is always debt has everything to do with it. I wrote on the Wash Post website last week that the Chinese should never have allowed the trade imbalance to occur, but that given our control of the world's money supply, we left them no choice. And while China may be acting like a petty mercantilist, we, through our central bank, were acting like an imperious one. I might add that many Western firms are deeply involved in this Chinese development and would no doubt be impacted by its collapse.