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Prov0ker 07/19/2009 07:34 PM Report
Stephen Cohen is spot on in both his historical diagnoses as well as the prescribed policies (particularly stopping the expansion of NATO which is driving the new Cold War) for resetting US-Russian relations.
Both Chrystia Freeland and AlterNate have failed to understand that foreign policy is about understanding the perception of the other side and therein lays their incomplete views. To begin, there are conflicting narratives of what has happened since the collapse of the USSR. The view that has been propagated by the American media is that America was triumphant in winning the Cold War and therefore in the post-Cold War period Russia is America's subordinate--a junior partner at best. In Russia, a different narrative unfolded where Gorbachev, being the statesman he was, began talks with Reagan about how to end the Cold War and it was through a process of negotiation and compromises that the Cold War was ended.
The source for conflict in US-Russian relations arises from American policymakers formulating policies on the basis of their narrative, without a careful consideration of how these policies are perceived in Russia and what the consequences of these policies are.
What are America's failed policies? First, implicit in their policies is a dubious assumption that Russia is a subordinate state rather than respectable partner. Of course, Russia is the only modern state to have an empire rise and collapse, only to have another and bigger colosal empire rise and collapse. Russia is destined to be a great power. It's the largest territorial country in the world, endowed with a range of natural resources, has a very educated, skilled, and vibrant population, and has the largest stockpile of weapons of mass destruction in the world. Therefore, to pursue policies that treat a great country like Russia as an inferior state is provocative and bound to generate anti-Americanism on Russian soil. Second, and more specifically, the US has continued to expand NATO eastward despite promising not to. That's a broken promise, and both the wise international relations scholar or even married couple with any common sense, understands that trust is important in relationships. On that note, Russians and the Russian elite is highly mistrustful of American advice and policies. And as Cohen has pointed out in another interview, there is a perception in Russia that America is out to weaken Russia. The expansion of NATO has fed this perception. Third, the Clinton administration cheerleaded Yeltsin with the wars in Chechnya, not taking into account that a civil war in a fully nuclearized country is always a bad idea. Fourth, Americans urged on Russia reform policies that were missionary and were not consistent with its context and history. Advising Russia to pursue shock therapy and the assumption that creating a facsimile of the US in Russia was both feasible and desirable was missionary. A more gradual process of reform, like that established by Gorbachev, would have been much more pragmatic, along with keeping a welfare state as the northern European countries have. Those are opportunities that have been lost in that the poverty they created is already a historical fact and created a context for Putin's rise to power. Of course, everyone forgets that in 1933 the Nazis were democratically elected. When there is a crisis situation and people are unemployed, resentful, humiliated, they naturally suppport political leaders who will rule with the fist, reintroduce order, and deliver the goods. People love democracy until they can't feed their children, at which point they will cash in their freedom if they believe it will put more food on the table. And Putin delivered the goods which was why he was so popular (about 75 percent according to polling data). Fifth, and more recently, the US withdrew from the ABM Treaty and is adament about building a defense shield which has provoked a new arms race (Russia has been building its own Topol-Ms which cannot be intercepted by modern defense systems), not to mention the recent Georgian War in August 2008. These are just a few failed policies. But the upshot is to push Russia even further away, create more anti-Americanism, and in short fuel a new Cold War.
The main policy prescription for building a better relationship with Russia and this is basic braindead logic stuff in traditional IR theory but Washington doesn't understand, or doesn't want to understand, is to respect Russia's sovereignty and near abroad. That means ending the expansion of NATO period. Both the practicality of this for security reasons, along with the symbolism of it for diplomacy, is the wisest thing American policymakers can do. Because Russia is getting strong again, and unless the US stops its aggressive policy and recognizes its poor advice and failed policies, and given that the US is a hegemon in decline while Russia is genetically programmed to be a great power, the consequences of failing to do so are exceedingly dangerous for US security.
Mirror 07/11/2009 11:44 PM Report
correction (misspelled) 800 AD (of course), and hm ... keep having those dreams, darlings ...
Mirror 07/11/2009 07:43 PM Report
Chrystia Freeland, as well as you, AlterNate, is uneducated and, in her case, in fact, thoroughly unpleasant to watch and listen to, in your case, tedious and disappointing to read. As is always: pretension unbacked by any knowledge is hideous. Cohen was the only one in this discussion who had any depth and conceptual understanding.
The East/West divide in Russian history, philosophy and thinking goes back to the time when Kiev was Russia's capital (800AC). Nobody blames US for any mess. What mess? Russia owes nothing to the world, while the US is in foreign and domestic debt up to its eyeballs. Nobody begs to be NATO's member actually anymore. This was the 90s. The issue is that the US broke its promise it made to Russia NOT to expand NATO which is a military alliance.
The missile defense shield and the NATO expansion will cost the US more trillions and will do nothing except make Russia angry which is the way any country would feel when someone ratchets up military presence on its borders. It is simple and only a moron will fail to understand it.
However, all you, neocons, keep have all these hot summer night dreams of the cold war if it pleases you. Pathetic.
AlterNate 07/09/2009 01:48 AM Report
Chrystia Freeland is spot on. She shows such a deep understanding of the situation. Just surgically precise on every single statement. Bravo!
Cohen is way off on most everything. Just awful!
-Russia is standing between East and West? -- where did Cohen get this silly cliche?
-US is to blame for Russia's mess? -- Seriously? What in his mind US could've done? Does he seriously suggest that had NATO not expanded, it would've prevented KGB from coming to power? Do not forget that every single Eastern European country that joined NATO practically begged for the membership. Their main motivation - protection from Russia.
-Obama should appease Russia by throwing Georgia and Ukraine in Putin's claws?!! -- I suppose Cohen would've also suggested to leave Hitler alone and let him do what he wants?
-There was no proxy-wars between US and Soviet Union? -- Really?!!! And he writes books on Russia? Ever heard of Afghanistan? Korea? Vietnam maybe?
Russia currently has only one problem -- it is run by KGB thugs with a lost-empire-syndrome. And that's what US policy should use as a starting point in its Russia policy.
tartufe 07/08/2009 03:31 PM Report
Hear, hear Anton.
CPir 07/08/2009 01:45 PM Report
Mirror-
To clarify, we do not owe the world $56 trillion, the amount is closer to $13 trillion. The remaining $43 trillion are unfunded obligations for Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security. If any thing, it's more like saying we expect to have a "bill" for this amount if current entitlements are not reformed; but it isn't a "debt" in the truest sense of the word.
AntonGrambihler 07/08/2009 03:04 AM Report
Why is Iran always mentioned and blamed for the problems in the Middle East?
If Israel is an example of a democracy in the Middle East, then why would any other State in the World want to be a Democracy?
Israel was created by a terrorist uprising and has never abided by the United Nations resolution which authorized the taking of land from the Palestine People and giving it to the Terrorists. Israel does not have a signed Constitution. In addition this land called Israel illegally invaded its neighbors and illegally occupies this land and continues to destroy Palestine Homes and builds illegal settlements. Israel treats the Palestine People inhumanely and calls them Terrorists when they try to get their land back from the illegal Israeli Invasion. Why has the United States blocked the investigations of possible massacres of the Palestine People by Israel?
Israel has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT or NNPT). Israel has unregulated Nuclear Weapons. The United States provided Israel with missiles to deliver the Israeli Nuclear Bombs. The United States and Israel threaten Iran with sanctions and possible bombings. I wonder why Iran might want Nuclear Bombs. Why is it wrong for North Korea and Iran to maybe supply weapons to the Palestine Freedom fighters trying to get their land back from the illegal Israeli invasion and occupation, while it is considered OK for the United States a member of the NPT to provide missiles to Israel, a non-member of the NPT, for the delivery of Israeli Nuclear bombs?
Israel Bombed the United States in 1967 and it was covered up. Israel has killed United States Citizens and not been held accountable. Israel has Kidnapped American Citizens and President Obama has not spoken out about it, but he did speak out about recent internal affairs of Iran.
Why is the United States helping fund the rampant racism which allows the Genocide of the Palestine People and denies their right of return for the creation of a Jewish Homeland? Did the United States learn nothing about what happens when land is taken from one people and given to another? Do they not recall what happened when land was taken from Czechoslovakia and given to the Nazis, and the Genocides committed by the Nazis? How many people must die before this Israeli Genocide is called a Holocaust?
Where is the News Media that is suppose to keep the Citizens informed?
If the 100% citizens were informed, do you think they would have supported taking land from the Palestine People and giving it to Terrorists? Do you think that they support funding the continued Racism and Genocide being committed by these Terrorists?
Mirror 07/08/2009 02:00 AM Report
In fact, Cohen is the only one in this discussion who has any knowledge of history while not getting bogged down in it. The basic problem though, as always, we, Americans live in a fantasy land.
We speak as though we do not owe the world 56 trillion dollars, but we do.
We speak of Russia as having economic problems yet it has zero foreign or domestic debt. Unlike us.
We speak of ourselves as if we are, by definition, good, after we just did Abu Graib, Guatanamo, invaded and destroyed a country under false pretenses, abandoned habeas corpus, eavesdropped on our own citizens.
And we lecture them on democracy. Hm. Bravo.
So, then. Let us then agree that when the Russians build a missile defense shield in Tijuana and expand a Slavic alliance to Mexico and Canada we shall be understanding.
reneBenthien 07/07/2009 07:12 PM Report
I get Freeland's view that they should not betray the interests of Ukraine and Georgia and other flourishing E.European states. But she shouldn't be resorting to conspiracy theories to supplement that position.
Cohen was highly convincing. He didn't veer from well established facts to make his point clear. Before I watched this interview I was under the unsubstantiated impression that Russia was mostly at fault for the US-Russia relationship. But as he outlined (ABM, Afghanistan, NATO, military bases, Georgia, immediate post-cold war) the US is mostly responsible for the problems that it is facing now.
Chrystia is placing too much importance on one bogey man. Foreign policy is an arena of complex threads between international economics and geo-politics. Not convoluted psychobabble and hearsay.
nlolua 07/07/2009 03:43 PM Report
I wonder how much of Gazprom money Cohen is getting paid for his
deliberately misleading statements. Schroeder, Baker and even Kissinger have sold their souls to the devil himself. Why wouldn't miserable Cohen do so?
REMant 07/07/2009 02:47 PM Report
A very fine discussion I thought. The popular misconception is that, with the break-up of the Soviet Union, the Cold War ended. In fact nothing of the kind seems to be the case. We are still practicing containment, and they still have imperial ambitions of an Asian or Mideastern kind. And, like several of these states, Russia has made very little headway in the economic development it really needs to reassume the status it seeks, and which will bring it closer to the West. But as Cohen and others have said there was a missed opportunity when Putin took over, and likely an even bigger one when we assumed that Yeltsin, and the citizenry as a whole, were closet Junior Achievers. Nevertheless, we probably can find common ground now, and probably it does involve as a first step greater respect and sense of partnership. In all of these countries indigenous economic development is needed, without exploitation.