Charlie Rose Science Series
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08/07/2007
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
A conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Keywords:
A conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb about his book The Black Swan.
DVD
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Charlie Rose DVDs on Amazon.
Audio
Audio available through Audible.com.
Audio available through Audible.com.
Transcripts
Transcripts available through Voxant.
Transcripts available through Voxant.
NNT's Black Swan is an interesting read. I agree with him on two of his major points - that is people know very little to no fault of our own and as he puts it "tinkering" produces. Experimentation, trial and error, doing things, trying things should be focused on because they work better than theorizing, or sitting in a box and meditating. However, I disagree with his randomness theories though i do find them interesting and worth considering which i still do. I haven' dismissed them. For example though, 911 he says was a black swan, random, and unpredictable, and obviously extremely consequential but how many terrorist attacks have there been in the US, even particularly aimed at the world trade center. There has been a history of terrorist attacks aimed at the US so why were we so shocked, one, and two, why did we think we were going to continue to get an onslaught of terrorist attacks? This as he would say is explaining events with the advantage of being able to look back at events in hindsight. Essentially, what Taleb calls random, I would call perspectival - especially in the case of 911. The attack to the point of view of the terrorists was not random at all - it was Intelligently Designed and premeditated worked out beautifully in their minds. Natural disasters seem more random but in my ignorant opinion are just systems we don't understand much like the machines or people who inhabit Earth that we also don't understand because people are random - not so much to themselves but to professionals and professions who seek to predict them, write them and understand them.
Great interview! However, there is a bit of a contradiction in this 'randomness' philosophy. For example, if you believe everything is random, then your belief itself becomes random, which leads to a sort of chaos or even nihilism. Also, I am not sure that I agree with Naseem's statement that life today is more random than it was in early hunter-gather societies. In fact, we have much more non-randomness in terms of food supply, medicine, access to clean water, etc. Perhaps we have a different type of randomness than they did, one that is more information oriented, but that doesn't necessarily mean that our lives today have become more random.
Compare the Black Sawn to the book Complexity. Quite interesting.
This guy was good, very good. I watched the program twice, the first time got my attention, the second, hooked me. When I get the time, and the brain space, I'll definitely consider purchasing his book, The Black Swan. It speaks to a cutting edge topic that the persistant will study and understand for personal and societal benefits. --Doug Kamp, author, Growing Up in America: The Inside Story
This Nassim Taleb is a slippery fellow, not to speak derogatorily. I like him and his demeanor. I especially like the part about our inherent limitations and immediately wonder if we could better adapt ourselves to these limitations. If the greater part of creation is indeed what is at hand to begin with, then all that we are on this perhaps overburdened planet is quite a lot to start with in the cause of creation. Maybe Marlon Brando, if he were still around, would ask, yes, but what is your meaning? Meaning to do with?
Charlie Rose, Have you noticed that the highly intelligent have a very hard time explaining what they are saying in their book....you seemed a bit "WHAT?' as Nassin talked but I understood from the start and became excited as this is the perfect reading for my son. The people are very good at voicing "reason for" after the fact.....Ha!-now that I think about it...it IS hard to explain! My only question would have been "why title the book "Black Swan" and not 'Matter over Mind" Anyway, I watch each night...ya do good, (although you did seem to be a bit edgy with my friend Dennis?? Ellen